A new Mainstreet Research poll reveals a tightening race between incumbent Toronto mayor Olivia Chow and challenger Brad Bradford, with Bradford surging to within six percentage points among decided voters. The survey, conducted June 12-18, 2026, among 1,157 adults, shows Bradford at 38% support compared to Chow's 43.6% when undecided voters are excluded. This marks a significant jump from February, when Bradford stood at 17%.
Bradford Leads in Forced Two-Way Race
When respondents who indicated they would not vote for either frontrunner were asked to choose in a forced two-way race, Bradford received 51.9% support versus Chow's 48.1%. This suggests Bradford could consolidate anti-Chow sentiment. The poll also found that 60% of respondents believe Toronto is on the wrong track, while Chow's approval rating sits at 41%, with 55% disapproving.
Key Issues Driving Voters
The top issues cited by voters include traffic and congestion (27.3%), affordability (25.8%), and crime and safety (23.5%). Bradford, a city councillor from Toronto's east end, has focused his campaign on these concerns, along with antisemitism. He criticized Chow's decision not to sit on the police board and her declaration of a 'genocide in Gaza' last year, as well as a 25% property tax increase.
'We have all the ingredients to make this one of the best cities in the world,' Bradford told National Post. 'But right now we're falling down on those basic things that really play a big role in our quality of life. I want this to be a city that we can be proud of again.'
Pollster Warns of Challenges for Chow
Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research, noted that while Chow leads by nearly six points, her ceiling is close to 49%, and a near equal number of voters say they will definitely not vote for her. Bradford has a lower ceiling at 45%, but only a quarter of residents say they will definitely not vote for him. 'That differential may change in time, but it should be concerning to the mayor,' Maggi said. 'With the top issues that residents cited and the approvals at this level, the mayor will have to work hard for her re-election chances.'
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9% at the 95% confidence level. The election is scheduled for October 26.
