A new poll from Mainstreet Research reveals that Beaches-East York Councillor Brad Bradford is rapidly closing the gap with incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow in Toronto's mayoral race. Among decided voters, 43.6% would vote for Chow, while 37.8% would choose Bradford, a significant shift from earlier surveys where Chow held a commanding lead.
Bradford gains momentum as Tory supporters shift
With former mayor John Tory exiting the race, many of his supporters have flocked to Bradford, who stood at only 17% support in February while Tory was still in the running. The trend is even more pronounced in a hypothetical two-way race: when voters supporting other candidates were asked to choose between Bradford and Chow, Bradford led with 51.9% to Chow's 48.1%, just outside the poll's margin of error.
Kelly Aizicowitz of advocacy group A Better City Toronto said the results were no surprise. “That’s because Torontonians have been seeing, feeling and living with crime, gridlock, disorder, skyrocketing prices under this mayor who has not done much to tackle any of these problems,” she said.
Chow's approval rating sinks
The poll also shows that only 40.6% of respondents approve or strongly approve of Chow's performance, while 56% disapprove or strongly disapprove. Aizicowitz noted that Torontonians are frustrated with basic city services: “We just keep paying more and more. There’s been a 25% property tax increase under Mayor Chow and we’re getting less.” She added, “The mayor is basically telling Torontonians, ‘This is fine.’ And it’s not.”
Mainstreet Research president Quito Maggi said the race is shaping up to be more interesting than expected. “While Olivia Chow leads by almost six and has a ceiling close to 49%, a near equal number of voters say they will definitely not vote for her,” he said in a news release.
Bradford has room to grow, advocate says
Aizicowitz believes Bradford's support can still increase as he introduces himself to the city. “If I were in the mayor’s shoes today, I would be very worried,” she said. “We know that a lot of Torontonians don’t necessarily know who Councillor Bradford is, but he’s doing work to get people to know him. Everyone knows who she (Chow) is and it looks like she’s hitting her ceiling, but he has room to grow.”
The top issues for voters heading into the October election, according to the poll, are crime, transit, and affordability — areas where Aizicowitz said Chow has failed. She concluded, “We can choose change come October.”
