Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi has issued a direct challenge to Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party (UCP), declaring his party ready for an election at any time and highlighting the government's fragile hold on power.
A Direct Challenge to the UCP
In a year-end interview conducted on Thursday, December 11, 2025, Nenshi dismissed the premier's stated commitment to stick to the scheduled fall 2027 election date. He pointed to persistent rumors of an early vote and stated the official opposition is prepared. "In the opposition, we're ready if they call an election in spring," Nenshi asserted. "We'll go if they call in the fall, we'll go if they wait until 2027."
His confidence stems from a critical assessment of the UCP's current standing in the legislature. "Let's never forget, this is the smallest majority Alberta has ever had," Nenshi emphasized, referencing the UCP's hold on 47 seats compared to the NDP's 38. He warned that the ongoing recall petition movement poses a significant threat to that tenuous control.
The Recall Petition Wildcard
Nenshi argued that the recall effort is a far greater danger to the government than the UCP publicly acknowledges. Currently, there are 26 official recall campaigns active across the province. Of these, 24 are targeting UCP MLAs, including 13 full cabinet ministers—Premier Danielle Smith among them. Only two New Democrat MLAs, Peggy Wright in Edmonton and Amanda Chapman in Calgary, face similar petitions.
The NDP leader identified Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides as particularly vulnerable, noting that his use of the notwithstanding clause during the recent teacher strike helped trigger the widespread recall movement. Nenshi stated, "There are a number of ministers who are very vulnerable." He warned that if even a few UCP members were successfully recalled and lost subsequent by-elections, the government's majority would vanish, creating major instability.
Premier Smith has previously signaled she might use legislation to halt the recall process if it becomes a "threat"—a move Nenshi interprets as an admission of the risk it poses to her government.
A Broader Climate of Instability
Beyond the recall threat, Nenshi pointed to other factors contributing to political volatility in Alberta. These include the potential for a separatist referendum and the uncertain outcome of Premier Smith's memorandum of agreement with the federal government in Ottawa.
He also noted political friction within the UCP itself, highlighting that Smith was booed at her own party convention "for signing a UCP-Liberal alliance" after years of criticizing the former federal NDP-Liberal partnership. Furthermore, the presence of two former UCP members, Peter Guthrie and Scott Sinclair, who now sit as independents, means they could vote against the government on matters of confidence, further eroding its working majority.
Nenshi concluded by challenging Premier Smith to put a proposed "Forever Canadian" question from former MLA Thomas Lukaszuk to a public vote, framing it as another test of the government's direction and public support.
