Intelligence services from two NATO member nations suspect Russia is actively developing a new type of anti-satellite weapon designed to target Elon Musk's Starlink constellation. The alleged system aims to undermine a key Western advantage that has proven critical for Ukraine's defense against the ongoing Russian invasion.
A Weapon of Mass Disruption in Orbit
According to intelligence findings reviewed by The Associated Press, the weapon would operate on a "zone-effect" principle. Instead of targeting individual satellites with missiles, it would seek to flood specific orbital paths with hundreds of thousands of tiny, high-density metal pellets. This cloud of shrapnel could disable numerous Starlink satellites simultaneously.
The potential for catastrophic collateral damage is immense, analysts warn. Such an indiscriminate attack would not only hit Starlink but could also cripple thousands of other satellites from various nations and companies that provide essential communications, navigation, and defense services.
Victoria Samson, a space-security specialist at the Secure World Foundation, expressed deep skepticism. "I don't buy it. Like, I really don't," she said, questioning the strategic logic for Moscow given the likely repercussions for its own space assets and those of its ally, China.
Canadian Military Weighs the Threat
The commander of the Canadian military's Space Division, Brigadier General Christopher Horner, offered a measured assessment. While not briefed on the specific system, he stated the development was "not implausible" given previous U.S. allegations about Russia pursuing a nuclear, space-based weapon.
"If the reporting on the nuclear weapons system is accurate and that they're willing to develop that and willing to go to that end, well it wouldn't strike me as shocking that something just short of that, but equally damaging, is within their wheelhouse of development," Horner told the AP.
He highlighted the uncontrollable nature of such a weapon, comparing it to blowing up "a box full of BBs" that would blanket an entire orbital regime. This could take out every satellite in a similar orbit, not just the intended Starlink targets, creating a debris field that could get "out of control in a hurry."
Strategic Motives and Immense Risks
Russia views the Starlink network as a direct threat. The constellation's thousands of low-orbiting satellites have been pivotal for Ukraine, enabling battlefield communications, weapons targeting, and maintaining government and civilian links.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites aiding Ukraine's military could be legitimate targets. This month, Russia announced it had fielded the new S-500 missile system, capable of hitting low-orbit targets.
However, the alleged pellet-based weapon represents a different scale of threat. The intelligence suggests the millimeter-sized pellets could be released by formations of small satellites, making them difficult to detect and attribute to an attack. Clayton Swope of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that while attribution would be complex, "people would figure it out" if multiple satellites began failing.
The system's development status remains unclear. The findings did not specify a deployment timeline or testing details. An official familiar with the intelligence indicated the system is in active development, but timing information is too sensitive to share.
Samson suggested the research could be merely experimental or even a strategic ploy. "Often times people pushing these ideas are doing it because they want the U.S. side to build something like that or ... to justify increased spending on counterspace capabilities," she said.
The risks of deploying such a weapon are arguably self-deterring. Debris and pellets would eventually fall toward Earth, threatening other vital systems like the International Space Station and China's Tiangong station at lower orbits. Russia, as a major space power with significant investments in orbit, would also suffer severe losses, potentially cutting off its own access to space.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to requests for comment. Russia has previously called for UN efforts to halt orbital weapons deployments, and President Vladimir Putin has stated Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space.
The French military's Space Command, in a statement, declined to comment on the specific findings but stated that "Russia has, in recent years, been multiplying irresponsible, dangerous, and even hostile actions in space."
