Flu Cases Decline Across Canada, Yet Health Officials Urge Continued Caution

Influenza activity across Canada has shown a significant decrease, according to the latest federal respiratory virus surveillance report. However, medical experts are cautioning that the season is far from over, with lingering risks and new strains on the horizon.

Current Trends and Warnings

Data through February 7 indicates that all indicators of influenza activity have continued to drop nationwide, suggesting the peak of the season may have passed. Dr. Vinita Dubey, associate medical officer of health at Toronto Public Health, emphasized that while numbers are down, the respiratory season remains active. "Influenza activity typically continues until the end of April," she stated, highlighting that the decline does not equate to an end.

Dubey pointed out a potential shift in circulating strains, noting that influenza B strains could become more prevalent as the season progresses. These strains are particularly concerning for children, as they can cause severe illness. This twist means that even as one strain fades, another may emerge, keeping the threat alive.

Vaccination Effectiveness and Importance

The 2025-26 flu vaccine has faced challenges due to a new circulating influenza strain known as subclade K. Early reports from Canada indicated vaccine effectiveness around 40%, with European data showing rates between 52% and 57%. Despite this lower match, Dubey stressed that vaccination is not useless. "Even in seasons where effectiveness is lower than hoped, vaccination remains one of the best tools we have to reduce serious outcomes and protect those most vulnerable," she explained.

Key points about the vaccine include:

It provides important protection against severe illness and hospitalization.
It helps prevent complications among high-risk individuals.
While it may not block all infections, it can significantly reduce hospital visits.

COVID-19 and Other Respiratory Threats

While influenza spiked early in the season, COVID-19 has maintained a steady, lower level of spread since August. Dubey noted that outbreaks in long-term care homes are still being reported, and predicting spring trends is difficult. "Respiratory viruses tend to ebb and flow throughout the year, and COVID-19 has followed that pattern over the past several seasons," she said, adding that there hasn't been a dramatic peak this year.

Health Canada recommends annual COVID-19 vaccinations for those at higher risk, including seniors, long-term care residents, pregnant women, and individuals with underlying conditions. Some severely immunocompromised people may qualify for extra doses, but decisions should be made with healthcare providers.

Antibiotic Resistance and Public Health Advice

Dubey issued a strong warning against antibiotic overuse for viral infections like the flu or colds. "Viral infections are not treated with antibiotics, and antibiotic use for viral infections can certainly lead to overuse and resistance," she cautioned. According to the World Health Organization, antimicrobial resistance is a top global health threat, contributing to millions of deaths annually.

For managing mild to moderate symptoms, Dubey advised:

Rest and fluids at home.
Over-the-counter medications for pain, fever, or cold symptoms.
Seeking medical advice if symptoms worsen or for high-risk individuals.
Wearing a well-fitting mask when seeking care to protect others.

Residents can monitor local trends through Toronto Public Health's Integrated Respiratory Diseases Dashboard, which tracks influenza, COVID-19, RSV, and wastewater data.

Conclusion

Flu numbers are falling, COVID-19 is simmering steadily, and RSV is tapering, but the respiratory season persists. Smart choices, including staying up-to-date on vaccinations and practicing layered protection, remain essential as we navigate the remaining weeks of potential spread.