In a candid admission, former federal environment minister Steven Guilbeault has stated that the Liberal government will fail to achieve its central climate goal for this decade. Freed from the obligations of cabinet solidarity, Guilbeault now acknowledges that Canada will not reduce its industrial greenhouse gas emissions to at least 40% below 2005 levels by 2030.
A Frank Admission After Leaving Cabinet
Speaking to CBC's Radio-Canada, Guilbeault delivered a blunt assessment. "If we're honest with Canadians, we can no longer reach our 2030 (climate) goals," he stated. "With the announcements that have been made recently, it's not possible." This declaration starkly contradicts recent assurances made in the House of Commons by Prime Minister Mark Carney. Just before last month's federal budget, Carney told Parliament, "I can confirm to this House that we will respect our Paris commitments for climate change and we're determined to achieve them."
Guilbeault's comments highlight a recurring theme in politics, where ministers often feel they can only speak freely after exiting the cabinet. The former minister, who now serves as Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture, suggested that a recent pipeline agreement was the final catalyst for his public candor and his decision to leave his previous portfolio.
The Pipeline Deal and a History of Missed Marks
Guilbeault indicated that Canada's 2030 target had been unrealistic for some time. However, he pointed to a specific event as "the last straw" that prompted his departure from the environment portfolio. This was Prime Minister Carney's memorandum of understanding with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. The agreement paves the way for a pipeline to transport oil sands bitumen from Alberta to the British Columbia coast for export to Asian markets via oil tankers.
This admission casts a shadow over the government's substantial financial commitments to climate action. On April 14, 2023, while still environment minister, Guilbeault himself boasted that total federal investments in addressing climate change would be "north of $200 billion." This massive sum was allocated across 149 government programs administered by 13 different agencies. Given the now-admitted failure to meet objectives, questions are being raised about the effectiveness of this spending and whether a forensic audit is warranted to trace where the funds went.
Independent Reports Had Already Sounded the Alarm
Guilbeault's statement, while significant, is not the first indication of Canada's lagging progress. His admission follows a series of warnings from independent parliamentary and research bodies. The following institutions had all previously reported that Canada was far off track:
- The federal parliamentary budget officer
- The Canadian Climate Institute
- The Trottier Energy Institute
- The C.D. Howe Institute
- Federal environment commissioner Jerry V. DeMarco
These reports concluded that the country is not close to achieving its 2030 target, let alone its more ambitious goals for 2035 and 2050. This consistent external analysis raises a critical question: why do Carney and his government continue to publicly insist the targets are attainable when evidence and now a former key minister suggest otherwise?
The revelation underscores a fundamental challenge in climate policy. A sensible and credible approach to tackling climate change, many argue, must begin with honesty about what is realistically achievable. Guilbeault's post-cabinet candor has pulled back the curtain on a gap between political promises and practical outcomes, setting the stage for a renewed debate on Canada's climate strategy and transparency.
