This Fourth of July weekend, Taylor Swift is expected to marry football player Travis Kelce, and prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are seeing millions of dollars in bets on wedding details. On Polymarket, users can wager on the wedding date or whether Swift will be pregnant before marriage. Kalshi reports over $5.2 million traded on Swift wedding-related markets, including bets on her wearing a Dior dress, Justin Trudeau attending, or Selena Gomez as a bridesmaid. The most popular bet is the wedding location, with New York leading over Rhode Island.
More Female Traders in Swift Markets
According to Kalshi, there are three times more female traders in these markets compared to others. Kalshi stated, “Taylor and Travis’ wedding is a tentpole cultural event that so many of her fans are excited about. Trading on predictions related to the event or looking at the data allows fans to feel like they’re getting a front row seat to the action.” Kalshi emphasizes that it facilitates “trading” not “betting,” as trades are made against other people, not a house. However, several federal lawsuits dispute this characterization.
Risks to Parasocial Bonds
Shira Gabriel, a psychology researcher at the University of Buffalo, studies parasocial relationships—the one-sided bonds fans form with celebrities. She notes that these relationships can be healthy and beneficial, such as when fans attend concerts or watch videos. However, betting on personal details may dehumanize the celebrity. “What worries me about it is that there’s something dehumanizing about it,” Gabriel said. “The more that people are betting on little aspects of someone’s life, the less that person seems like an actual human being, and the more they feel like a commodity.” She added, “You’re putting yourself at risk, not only for disappointment and losing money, but also for losing that bond, for getting to a place where it’s no longer a parasocial bond, but it is a transactional connection.”
Pregnancy Bets Criticized as “Super Gross”
Certified financial planner Hanna Horvath called the Polymarket bets on Swift’s pregnancy “super gross.” Over $2 million has been wagered on whether Swift will be pregnant by year-end. “You’re putting a price on someone’s intimate life decisions,” Horvath said. “I think it’s worth thinking about the golden rule: ‘Would you want somebody to do this for you?’”
Platform Defenses and Insider Trading Concerns
When asked about dehumanization critiques, Kalshi stated that “Taylor is a public figure of major interest, and her decisions have a major economic impact.” Polymarket said it provides “a real-time read on what participants expect will happen next, from major world events to the moments that dominate the public conversation, providing a transparent window into what the world collectively believes.” Horvath warned that large winners often have insider information. “The people who are benefiting from these platforms are people that have access to that insider information,” she said. “I truly believe you should go into prediction markets just assuming that money is gone.” In one case, a user made well-timed bets on Swift’s engagement one day before it happened, sparking suspicions of inside knowledge.
Potential for Harassment and Backlash
Gabriel warned that betting can lead to negative feelings if Swift doesn't meet expectations. “There’s an incentive to harass them more because you want a certain outcome,” she said. “Dehumanization is one of the key ways that we justify aggressive behavior towards other human beings.” This has already occurred: in March, an Israeli journalist received death threats from Polymarket bettors pressuring him to change his reporting on the Iran War.
Swift herself has set boundaries. In her 2024 song “But Daddy I Love Him,” she sings, “No, you can’t come to the wedding.” In a New York Times interview, she called it “weird” when fans do “detective work, figure out the details.” Gabriel said it's fine to bet on location, but “if you get wrapped up and get angry because someone isn’t making the kind of decisions that you predict that they will, then it might be time to sort of step back. You don’t want to give other people that kind of power over your happiness.”
