The Greater Vancouver Area's condominium market is facing a prolonged downturn, with TD Economics forecasting that prices and sales will not stabilize until late 2027. The report highlights that the benchmark condo price has fallen to about $690,000, with sales down 16% year-over-year as of April 30, marking the lowest activity since early 2019.
Price Decline and Market Correction
According to TD Economics, the benchmark price of a condominium in the Greater Vancouver Area is expected to decline 15% from 2023 levels by the time the market stabilizes. This would represent the deepest correction since 2005. By the end of 2026, prices are projected to have fallen seven percent year over year, compounding two previous years of declines.
Despite the historic downturn, the Vancouver condo market is expected to experience less of a decline than the Greater Toronto Area. TD's report notes that the GTA market still faces the highest level of new listings in the last decade, whereas Vancouver's new listings have begun moderating to levels closer to 2019 and 2020.
Labour Market and Demand Factors
TD Economics points to Vancouver's labour market as the main headwind for the struggling condominium market. Employment in the region has fallen two percentage points since June 2025. The report states that conditions will improve in 2027 due to declining prices, which should boost affordability and demand even if the labour market remains "muted."
Currently, the benchmark condo price in the GVA is about $690,000, still above 2021 levels. Sales are down 16% compared to the previous year, the least activity since early 2019.
Long-Term Outlook
Even as the market recovers, TD Economics cautions that price and demand growth will likely be tempered by slow population growth due to Canada's pullback on international migration. The report concludes that the combination of declining prices and improving affordability will gradually support demand, but the recovery will be gradual.
