The landscape of global aviation is undergoing a seismic shift, with airports in the Middle East embarking on an unprecedented expansion drive. Once focused on competing with European hubs, these giants are now turning their competitive gaze inward, setting the stage for an intense battle for passengers within the region itself.
The Scale of Expansion
The projected growth is staggering. Airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are poised to add hundreds of millions of passengers over the next decade. To put this into perspective, this growth is the equivalent of adding at least three entire airports the size of London's Heathrow to the global aviation network.
Dubai International Airport, which was once comparable in size to London's Gatwick with around 30 million annual passengers, now has plans to increase its annual capacity to more than 200 million. Paul Griffiths, the chief executive of Dubai Airports, confidently predicts his hub will become a "black-hole mega hub that sucks in demand all over the region." Already the world's largest airport, it expects to surpass 100 million visitors a year by 2027 and is developing a new site capable of handling 260 million passengers annually.
New Competitors Emerge
Istanbul is targeting a similar passenger volume, while Saudi Arabia has ambitious plans to develop its own regional mega-hub through its new airline, Riyadh Air. This marks a significant evolution in competition. For years, the region's airports viewed European leaders like Heathrow, Frankfurt, and Schiphol as their main rivals. Now, as they achieve massive scale, executives acknowledge that winning business from each other is the next frontier.
In contrast to Dubai's colossal plans, its UAE neighbor, Abu Dhabi, can currently accommodate 45 million passengers a year. Its main airline, Etihad, was anticipated by financiers to begin proceedings for a listing this year, though it has yet to do so.
Geographical and Service Advantages
The rise of these hubs is not accidental. They possess a powerful geographical advantage. "We have one-third of the world's population within four hours [flying time], and two-thirds within eight hours, that's one hell of a catchment area," Griffiths highlighted.
Selahattin Bilgen, chief executive of Istanbul airport, echoed this sentiment, stating, "One of the reasons why Dubai, Qatar and Istanbul have been in the front of the line is because of their location advantage... Istanbul being located in the middle of Africa, Asia and Europe gives a huge advantage."
This advantage has been compounded by recent global events. European airlines have been prevented from flying over Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, adding hours to flights to Japan, India, and China. This has effectively ceded the time advantage that European carriers traditionally held over their Emirati rivals.
Furthermore, the growth has been fueled by the region's airlines offering unparalleled luxury and service. Carriers like Qatar Airways serve caviar in business class, featuring plush cabins and on-demand dining. This drive for ever more competitive luxury offerings has, however, led to rising prices for passengers.
European Confidence Remains
Despite the formidable expansion in the Middle East, legacy carriers in the West remain confident in their ability to compete. Sean Doyle, chief executive of British Airways, pointed to his carrier's extensive network as a key differentiator. "People don't want to go over to Dubai for every single connection," he said. "If we have a competitive product and we're flying directly to more places from London than anybody else, I'm pretty confident that people will vote with their feet."
As these Middle Eastern airports continue their unstoppable rise, the next decade will redefine global air travel, creating new hubs of economic activity and intensifying competition on a scale never seen before.
