As the 2025 holiday season begins, Canadian shoppers are finding their patriotic intentions to support homegrown businesses colliding with the harsh reality of persistent cost-of-living pressures, according to retail analysts.
The Attitude-Behavior Gap in Canadian Shopping
Melise Panetta, a marketing lecturer at Wilfrid Laurier University's Lazaridis School of Business and Economics, identifies what she calls an 'attitude-behavior gap' among consumers. While Canadians demonstrated unprecedented support for domestic products earlier this year in response to the U.S. trade war, economic constraints are now testing their commitment.
'They still want to Buy Canadian and they will if they have an opportunity to do so and it makes sense for them economically,' Panetta explained. 'But they obviously are under more pressures and concerned about their spending.'
Small Business Perspective on Holiday Spending
Nina Noun, owner of With Nini, an Ottawa-based online fashion and home goods business, remains hopeful that the Buy Canadian movement will sustain her operation. Noun designs and sews clothing and accessories with her mother and a Toronto production team, advocating for eco-conscious and ethical production.
However, Noun has observed significant changes in consumer behavior. 'Maybe in previous years shoppers would pick up three t-shirts, where this year they might spread their spending a little bit more,' she noted. 'They're a little bit more conservative... I definitely see a little bit more stress this year than previous years.'
Conflicting Retail Forecasts for Holiday Season
Industry reports present mixed predictions for the crucial holiday buying period. PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasts a 10 percent decline in Canadian purchases compared to last year, with average spending per shopper expected to reach $1,675.
In contrast, Deloitte Canada's holiday retail outlook anticipates a three percent spending increase compared to 2024. Shaunna Conway, partner and national retail sector leader at Deloitte Canada, observed that 'Regardless of anything economic, the spirit is high right now, and people are positive. We have a mindful consumer that's cautious but optimistic and that's helping insulate our economy.'
The Deloitte report revealed that nearly three-quarters of Canadians prefer supporting local or Canadian-owned businesses. However, Conway acknowledged the practical reality facing shoppers: 'If the brand value or the price differentiation is too high, they will continue to go to online marketplaces.'
Amazon continues to dominate the holiday shopping landscape, with 70 percent of shoppers reporting they plan to purchase gifts through the e-commerce giant, according to the Deloitte analysis.
Black Friday represents a critical test for consumer loyalty to Canadian products as shoppers weigh patriotic values against financial practicality in a challenging economic environment.
