The Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) is issuing a stark warning to the Ontario government: the province's housing sector is facing a structural breakdown that requires immediate and decisive action to prevent severe long-term economic damage.
A Sector in Peril: Plummeting Sales and Starts
According to data analyzed by BILD, new home sales across Ontario have collapsed far below historic levels. In 2025, only about 15,000 new home units were sold, a dramatic drop from the traditional annual range of 65,000 to 85,000 units. This is not a typical market cycle dip but a sign of a deeper crisis.
High construction costs, elevated interest rates, and widespread economic uncertainty have created a perfect storm, making new projects financially unviable while pushing potential buyers to the sidelines. This decline in sales is now cascading into housing starts, threatening the entire construction pipeline.
The Staggering Economic Consequences of Inaction
BILD's projections paint a grim picture if the current trend continues. By 2030, housing starts and completions in Ontario could bottom out at around 40,000 units per year. This is roughly half the province's recent annual average of 80,000 units.
The economic fallout from this contraction would be severe:
- Approximately 100,000 jobs would be at risk—50,000 directly in construction and another 50,000 in related supply chains and industries.
- Total construction activity could plummet from roughly $31.7 billion in 2024 to just $10.4 billion by 2030.
- The provincial government could lose $2.4 billion annually in HST, $1.4 billion in income tax, and $700 million in land transfer tax revenue.
- Municipalities would lose an estimated $3.9 billion per year in development charges and fees.
"Failing to act risks long-term damage that will be far more expensive to repair later," the report emphasizes, noting that inaction actively erodes public finances rather than protecting them.
A Proposed Solution: Targeted HST Relief
BILD President and CEO Dave Wilkes proposes a clear, time-limited solution to break the cycle. He urges the province to remove the provincial portion of the HST on the first $1 million of value for all new homes sold for a period of two to three years. The tax would still apply to any value above that threshold.
This measure, Wilkes argues, would provide direct affordability relief to buyers, as every dollar of tax savings would lower the purchase price. The goal is to restore consumer confidence and allow stalled projects to proceed.
The cost of this intervention is significantly lower than the cost of inaction. At current low sales volumes, the province would forgo about $472 million per year in revenue. Even if sales returned to traditional levels, the annual cost would be approximately $1.4 billion—far less than the multi-billion dollar revenue losses projected for the 2030s.
In return, the policy could help protect up to 100,000 jobs, sustain about $20 billion in economic activity, and guard $8.5 billion in combined provincial and municipal revenues each year.
"This is not a request for an industry handout, as this rebate would go directly to homebuyers, not builders," Wilkes states. "It is a request to tax housing less so that it becomes more attainable, while ensuring the industry remains viable enough to continue contributing to public coffers."
The association frames this as a critical inflection point for Ontario. The government can either take targeted action to safeguard jobs, revenues, and future housing supply, or risk allowing a key economic engine to stall for years to come.
