A recent survey conducted by CPA Canada reveals that a significant majority of Canadian homeowners have no plans to move, thereby restricting opportunities for first-time buyers and highlighting a growing disconnect between housing demand and current construction trends.
Homeowners Staying Put
According to a Leger survey of 1,525 individuals carried out in March, 55 percent of respondents indicated they intend to remain in their current homes for the foreseeable future. Only 10 percent are considering upsizing. Furthermore, 61 percent of those who wish to move are either waiting for better prices or cannot afford to do so. This suggests a housing market that is increasingly stagnant, with many homeowners holding onto starter homes longer than expected, reducing turnover and slowing overall market activity.
Limited Impact of Ontario HST Rebate
Li Zhang, financial literacy leader with CPA Canada, predicts that the temporary HST rebate for housing included in Ontario’s latest budget will provide little stimulus for first-time homebuyers. She describes the measure as more of a short-term construction stimulus than a genuine housing affordability policy. The rebate is designed to jump-start construction and make new homes more affordable, but it will not help the majority of Ontarians trying to enter the real estate market.
David-Alexandre Brassard, chief economist for CPA Canada, echoes this sentiment, noting that Ontario’s housing market faces serious challenges similar to the rest of Canada but slightly worse. He compares the rebate to trying to catch receding waves of demographic growth with a bucket, splashing well-endowed future homeowners along the way. Previous measures to promote housing demand have had limited impact.
Mismatch Between Demand and Construction
There is a clear mismatch between what Canadians want and what is being built. Approximately half of non-homeowners aspire to single-family homes or townhouses, yet these dwelling types account for only about one-third of new construction. Condos are considered a viable first step by only 15 percent of respondents, and 46 percent feel that owning a home is becoming harder to achieve.
Financial Barriers and Future Concerns
The path to home ownership increasingly depends on factors beyond income alone. With high home prices and slower wage growth, especially among younger Canadians, many rely on financial support or cost sharing to make a purchase possible. Without that support, entering the market becomes significantly more difficult.
Zhang raises concerns about the implications for those needing more space for growing families or young adults entering the market. She notes that many young people are saying they will never buy a home and are living carefree, but such decisions may come back to haunt them in their 40s and 50s. The question remains: what happens when they reach that age without home ownership?
