Edmonton's Housing Market Shift Creates Opportunities for New Buyers
The vibrant resale market in Edmonton is showing signs of cooling after two exceptionally strong years, with industry forecasts predicting a continued slowdown in sales activity throughout 2026. While this might concern some sellers, it represents a potential silver lining for a significant demographic: first-time homebuyers who have been struggling to enter the property market.
A More Accessible Market for New Entrants
"It might be a bit easier this year for first-time buyers to succeed in getting their first home," observes Ed Lastiwka, a realtor with Royal LePage Noralta in Edmonton. This sentiment is echoed by market analysts who point to shifting dynamics that could tilt the balance slightly in favor of purchasers rather than sellers.
The Realtors Association of Edmonton recently forecast that resales in the Greater Edmonton Area will fall by approximately five percent from 2025 levels. This translates to an expected 25,470 transactions in 2026, compared to 26,835 last year. While 2025 sales were the second highest on record following 2024's peak of 28,630 resales, the anticipated decline signals a market normalization.
Edmonton's Affordability Advantage
What makes this shift particularly meaningful for first-time buyers is Edmonton's continued position as one of Canada's more affordable major markets. Don Kottick, president of Re/Max Canada, notes that Edmonton remains accessible with a median home price of about $440,000. This stands in stark contrast to markets like Vancouver and Toronto, where average prices have historically exceeded $1 million.
The driving forces behind Edmonton's recent sales boom included:
- A robust provincial economy that rebounded strongly in the 2020s
- Significant net migration that peaked in 2023
- Relative affordability compared to other major Canadian cities
- Post-pandemic demand that pushed sales well above pre-COVID levels
By comparison, Edmonton saw just 16,928 resales in 2019, highlighting how dramatically the market accelerated in recent years.
National Context and Migration Impacts
The cooling trend in Edmonton occurs against a backdrop of national housing market adjustments. David-Alexandre Brassard, chief economist with Chartered Professional Accountants Canada, emphasizes that Canada's largest markets face particular challenges. "I wanted to push back on that narrative that Canada's housing market could rebound this year," he states, noting that Vancouver and Toronto are likely to continue struggling amid reduced migration levels.
The federal government's substantial cuts to immigration after record levels in previous years have contributed to Canada's largest population decline since 1971. While this demographic shift affects all markets, Brassard suggests it will impact major centers like Toronto and Vancouver more significantly than Edmonton.
"They have an outsized impact on what's happening in the national average, and for them, the picture is bleak," he explains. Statistics reveal that Toronto has seen its average price retreat more than 20 percent from the 2022 peak, while Vancouver's average price is down about 10 percent.
Affordability Challenges Persist in Major Centers
Despite these declines, affordability remains a serious challenge in Canada's most expensive cities. Canadian Real Estate Association data shows that even after declining nearly eight percent year-over-year in December, the median price of a single-family detached home in Toronto still exceeded $1.1 million.
This context makes Edmonton's market particularly noteworthy for prospective buyers. While sales activity may be slowing from record highs, the fundamental affordability advantage persists. For first-time buyers who have been priced out of other markets or waiting for the right opportunity, Edmonton's cooling sales environment combined with its relatively accessible price points could create the opening they need to achieve homeownership in 2026.
The market shift represents a potential rebalancing after years of intense competition, offering new possibilities for those taking their first steps into real estate ownership in Alberta's capital region.
