Canadian Real Estate's Longest Winter: Buyers Gain Power as Sellers Confront New Market Realities
Canada's housing market has traditionally followed predictable seasonal patterns—spring listings, summer slowdowns, fall resets, and winter hibernation. However, many real estate professionals now report that this rhythm has been fundamentally disrupted. Instead of experiencing a routine seasonal lull, the market is enduring a prolonged chill driven not by weather but by psychological factors, severe affordability strain, and pervasive economic uncertainty.
Market Data Reveals Significant Slowdown
In the Greater Toronto Area, headline data clearly reflects this market deceleration. For the calendar year 2025, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported 62,433 home sales—representing an approximately 11.2 percent decline from 2024 figures. Meanwhile, the annual average selling price dipped to $1,067,968, marking a 4.7 percent decrease from the previous year.
December 2025 statistics further underscore the breadth of this adjustment across property types. The MLS Home Price Index composite benchmark showed a 6.3 percent year-over-year decline, with the average selling price settling around $1,006,735—roughly 5.1 percent lower than December 2024 levels.
Seasonal Patterns Become Muted
Beyond pricing adjustments, what stands out is how muted the usual seasonal market swings have become. TRREB's seasonally adjusted data reveals that GTA home sales in November 2025 were essentially flat compared with October, dipping just 0.6 percent month-over-month rather than showing the rebound typically observed during that period.
Nationally, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that home sales fell approximately 2.7 percent from November to December, with activity levels 4.5 percent below December 2024 figures. This suggests the market's traditional seasonal rhythm has become subdued rather than sharply cyclical.
Condo Market Shows Particular Weakness
Condo apartments have demonstrated notable vulnerability within this broader slowdown. In December 2025, the average GTA condo price hovered around $628,029, representing a 7.2 to 7.9 percent year-over-year decline according to TRREB reports. This indicates that even the more affordable housing segment is not immune to current market conditions.
Changing Market Dynamics
In Toronto's condo market, realtor Alexander Yolevski, who works primarily in Midtown Toronto, observes that traditional seasonal calendars matter far less than they once did. "The seasonality of the market has become almost irrelevant," he stated, arguing that interest rates, global events, and job security fears now exert more influence than the time of year.
Current conditions clearly favor buyers, but this hasn't translated into a surge of purchasing activity. Instead, it has significantly reduced market urgency. "This is a buyers' market... buyers can be picky like they have not been able to be in a very, very long time," Yolevski emphasized.
Sellers Adjust Expectations Amid Market Fatigue
This newfound patience on the demand side is colliding with growing fatigue among sellers. While sales continue to occur, Yolevski notes they're happening largely because owners are adjusting their expectations—not because demand is surging. "The fact that sellers are slowly starting to grasp the value of what they are trying to sell is what is making sales happen at all at this point," he explained.
The strain is particularly visible in the pre-construction and assignment segment. Yolevski described the assignment market as "a very sad and ugly place right now," pointing to defaults, legal disputes, and steep losses for some would-be sellers as evidence of the market's challenging conditions.
As Canada's real estate market navigates what many are calling its longest winter, the balance of power has clearly shifted toward buyers. Sellers must now confront new market realities characterized by adjusted pricing expectations and reduced transaction urgency, while economic factors continue to reshape traditional housing market patterns across the country.
