As the year draws to a close, investors across Alberta are tallying their gains and losses, uncovering a standout performer that wasn't on everyone's radar at the start of 2025. Contrary to the province's traditional energy strengths, the commodity that glittered brightest for many was gold.
A Golden Surprise in the Portfolio
The precious metal enjoyed a notable run in 2025, catching the attention of portfolio managers and retail investors alike. Karlen Daschuk, an investment counsellor with Edmonton-based Qube Investment Management Inc., offered an explanation for the rally. He suggested gold often performs well during periods of perceived crisis or significant unexpected events.
"Gold tends to really shine when there is crises or (an event) beyond the unexpected," Daschuk noted, citing periods of significantly high inflation like the 1970s as historical examples of the metal's excellence. However, he casts doubt on whether the current global climate truly warrants such a flight to safety.
Confusion, Not Crisis, Driving Demand?
Daschuk posits that the world is not actually in a state of crisis. Instead, he attributes the sense of uncertainty to factors like tariffs and trade wars, which have kicked up confusion in the markets. "He said tariffs and trade wars may have kicked up a sense of uncertainty and confusion, but he doesn’t believe it was enough to justify the run on gold, even if the panic was popular," the analysis reveals. This raises a cautionary flag for those expecting the metal's shine to continue unabated into 2026.
The Enduring Faith in Black Gold
While gold had its moment, the conversation in Alberta inevitably turns back to oil. The sector faced headwinds in 2025, partly under the weight of U.S. trade policy. The price of North American oil hasn't broken above US$70 per barrel since July 2025, with analysts suggesting it might remain subdued for several more months.
Despite the near-term price pressure, conviction in the long-term thesis for oil remains unshaken for some experts. Tim Pickering, founder and chief investment officer of Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd. in Calgary, expressed unwavering confidence. "If I had to pick one commodity to own for the next 10 years – I (only) get to pick one – I'm picking oil. I'm picking oil all day long," he stated emphatically.
Pickering highlighted that the opportunity in petroleum markets remains "incredible." This optimism is reflected in the stock market's reward for efficiency; many Canadian oil producers saw their share prices rise for boosting production and profits. The S&P/TSX capped energy index climbed 19 per cent in 2025.
Diversification and Hedging Strategies
The contrasting narratives of gold and oil underscore the importance of strategy. While Daschuk's portfolio maintains exposure to oil through index funds, he is not an active stock picker in the sector. His approach for Canadian clients often involves a deliberate diversification beyond domestic markets.
"He said when building a portfolio for Canadians, his firm will typically opt for more U.S. and global stocks to hedge against any potential downturns in Canada," a tactic shared by other local investors seeking to balance regional risks with global opportunities.
As Alberta's investment community looks back on a year of surprising wins and forward to the uncertainties of the next, the debate between the transient glitter of gold and the steadfast, long-haul potential of oil continues to define their financial landscape.
