U.S. Steel Imports to Canada Decline Sharply as Trade War Reshapes Market
One year into a contentious trade war, the United States is experiencing a significant erosion of its dominant position as the largest foreign supplier of steel to Canada. According to data from the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA), U.S. steel producers shipped 22 percent less product to Canada in 2025, amounting to a reduction of approximately 700,000 tonnes. This decline has caused the U.S. share of steel imports in Canada to drop from about 39 percent to 36 percent, signaling a notable shift in trade dynamics.
Impact of Tariffs and Global Trade Disruptions
The downturn in U.S. steel imports was largely anticipated following the imposition of tariffs on foreign steel by former U.S. President Donald Trump in March 2025. These measures prompted retaliatory tariffs from Canada and other nations, leading to what Prime Minister Mark Carney described as a "rupture" in the global trading order. Peter Warrian, an economist and distinguished fellow at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs, commented on the broader implications, stating, "Generally, this new world that Trump has thrown us into has caused a decline of trade. Overall, global trade that involves North America has declined the most."
Overall, steel imports into Canada decreased by 16 percent in 2025, falling from 3.1 million tonnes to 2.4 million tonnes. While the United States remains the top source of foreign steel, the market landscape has been altered by Canadian protectionist policies and shifting international trade patterns.
Shifts in Import Sources and Market Share
François Desmarais, vice-president of trade and industry affairs at the CSPA, highlighted that the decline was not limited to the United States. China also experienced a substantial reduction, shipping 250,000 fewer tonnes of steel products to Canada, which represents a 38 percent year-over-year decrease from 650,000 tonnes to about 400,000 tonnes. Desmarais noted, "Yes, the U.S. dropped by a significant chunk, but they remain the largest exporter to Canada. China saw a reduction of their imports to Canada by a lot, more than any other country."
China's share of steel imports in Canada fell to six percent in 2025, down from eight percent the previous year. In contrast, countries such as Argentina, Mexico, and South Korea gained market share during this period, indicating a diversification of Canada's steel import sources.
Data Discrepancies and Ongoing Trends
However, the narrative is nuanced by differing data interpretations. Global Affairs Canada (GAC) provides steel import statistics based on the country of origin and product category, derived from import permits that may be subject to revisions. Desmarais has disputed some of these figures, but analysts view the GAC data as a valuable indicator of market trends. According to GAC, U.S. steel imports began to slow dramatically in mid-March 2025, coinciding with the onset of the trade war and Trump's initial tariffs on Canadian steel.
This evolving situation underscores the complex interplay between trade policies and economic outcomes, with the steel market serving as a critical barometer of broader shifts in international commerce.
