Canada is entering vital trade talks with the United States and Mexico, with intense activity in Ottawa and a general sense across the country that anything could happen. Dominic LeBlanc and Janice Charette, two respected figures with years of high-level expertise, have been preparing the ground for months. They express cautious optimism that negotiations will produce a satisfactory agreement for all parties.
Political Challenges Ahead
On a purely political level, however, there is cause to question their prospects—and, by extension, Canada's economy. In a normal world, negotiators like LeBlanc and Charette would anticipate conferring with a sensible, reasonable, and trustworthy U.S. administration. But that does not exist. It hasn't existed since Day One of the second Trump presidency, and it is particularly absent now that the administration has the look of a wounded animal, its popularity tanking and defeats piling up on one front after another.
When frightened critters feel cornered, they tend to lash out at the closest target. What is more vulnerable than a well-meaning Canadian with a hopeful smile and a thick wedge of trade issues to discuss?
Mid-Term Election Positioning
Positioning for the U.S. mid-term elections is well underway, and prospects are not great for the incumbent Republicans. Primary votes were held in six states last week. Five months out from November is much too early to reliably predict how the results will play out, but if Donald Trump's luck is anything like it has been of late, his advisors should be on 24/7 crisis alert.
For weeks now, the White House has faced one setback after another. It signalled a retreat under extreme pressure on its effort to establish a US$1.8 billion fund widely seen as a slush fund for rewarding friends and supporters of the president. A court ordered Trump to remove his name from the John F. Kennedy Centre for the Performing Arts, declaring it “crystal clear” Congress intended the building to be named for Kennedy alone. The announced lineup for a Trump-affiliated mega-bash on America’s 250th birthday mostly refused to show up, declaring they had been misled. Trump’s rebuild of the demolished White House east wing remains under dispute.
Foreign Policy Troubles
America’s foreign adventures are similarly in trouble. The president was recently caught cursing out his friend and ally Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s ongoing battering of Lebanon, while the war in Iran looks increasingly like a mistake waiting to be admitted. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted to a Congressional hearing that the war “is over” even though the regime remains in place, there is no change to its nuclear aims, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, American guns are still firing at Iranian targets, and Iran is sending missiles at its neighbours. A U.S. “victory” now means getting a peace deal from an enemy Trump originally threatened to erase from the Earth.
Given these pressures, trade negotiators should pursue talks with minimal expectations. Canada must be prepared for a volatile U.S. counterpart that may seek to divert attention from domestic and foreign failures by targeting a convenient scapegoat.
