The Unseen Architect: How China's Number Two Forged a Trade Deal with Canada
While public attention focused on high-profile meetings between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping, it was China's less visible second-in-command who quietly engineered the diplomatic breakthrough that led to a significant trade agreement between the two nations.
The Steady Hand Behind the Scenes
Premier Li Qiang, China's principal economic manager and the country's number two political figure, operated with deliberate discretion throughout the delicate negotiations that culminated in this week's trade deal. According to China specialists familiar with the process, Li has gone to extraordinary lengths to avoid taking public credit for the agreement, maintaining the proper deference to President Xi Jinping while doing the substantive work required to normalize relations.
The four-day visit to Beijing that concluded earlier this week marked the first trip by a Canadian prime minister to China since 2017. While Carney's social media posts indicated the visit was officially at Li's invitation, the premier's careful positioning reflects the complex power dynamics within China's political structure.
A Gradual Thaw After Years of Frost
The path to this week's agreement began with a 40-minute meeting between Carney and Xi last Halloween in Gyeongju, South Korea. Billed as an informal chat on the sidelines of an international gathering, the discussion focused on thawing frosty relations and resetting trade between the two countries. That conversation concluded with an agreed path forward and an invitation for Carney to visit Beijing.
However, the groundwork had been laid months earlier. On June 5, Carney spoke by phone with Li as the Canadian leader attempted to begin improving bilateral relations. Their conversation covered several critical areas:
- The importance of moving beyond years of acrimony
- Global challenges facing both nations
- Potential trade and investment opportunities
- Areas where mutual interests might align for a potential deal
Canada sought easier access to Chinese markets for its energy, agriculture, and seafood products, while China wanted to sell electric vehicles in Canada and an end to what Beijing viewed as moralizing lectures on human rights and other matters.
Rebuilding Trust Through Persistent Diplomacy
Before any substantive progress could occur, both sides needed to re-establish trust after nearly a decade of hostility. The June phone conversation concluded with an agreement to stay in touch, leading to an in-person meeting between Li and Carney on September 23 in New York City during a United Nations General Assembly session.
That discussion further advanced bilateral relationship talks and clarified key issues, setting the stage for the Halloween meeting between Carney and Xi in South Korea five weeks later. When Carney finally arrived in Beijing last week, he met with Li before the final touches on the trade deal were resolved.
The Delicate Balance of Power
Xi Jinping remains China's unquestioned top political leader, widely regarded as the country's most powerful figure since Chairman Mao Zedong. Li, like all successful second-in-commands in China's political system, maintains keen awareness of the organizational hierarchy and Xi's dominance over government and country.
Yet it was Li and his officials within the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China who performed much of the heavy lifting from the Chinese side. MOFCOM, responsible for international trade and foreign investment, worked diligently to normalize relations with Canada and ultimately secure the trade agreement.
The premier's approach exemplifies the careful navigation required in China's political landscape—achieving substantive diplomatic and economic outcomes while maintaining appropriate deference to the country's top leadership. This delicate balancing act has proven essential in rebuilding Canada-China relations after years of tension.
