Calgary's economy is set to continue its expansion in 2026, with a projected growth rate of 2.4 per cent, according to a new report. The analysis from the Conference Board of Canada, released in early January 2026, indicates the city will maintain economic momentum even as it navigates a series of significant challenges.
Solid Growth Amidst Headwinds
The report highlights that Calgary's economic growth this year will be slightly up from 2025 levels, but it will occur in a climate marked by contradictory forces. Economist Robin Wiebe of the Conference Board described the outlook as "solid but unspectacular growth." He noted that this pace will still be decent in a national context, with Calgary forecast to have the fastest growth of any major Canadian city.
Several factors are applying pressure. The city is contending with tepid global oil prices, which directly impact a key economic driver. Furthermore, migratory inflows are shrinking, and the broader macroeconomic backdrop remains uncertain. A major looming factor is the upcoming renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) later in the year, adding a layer of trade policy uncertainty.
Job Market Shifts and Demographic Changes
The employment picture for Calgary is expected to change shape in 2026. After an exceptionally strong 2025 that saw the creation of more than 30,000 jobs, employment growth is projected to slow significantly. However, the unemployment rate is still forecast to fall. This counterintuitive trend is linked to a slowdown in population growth; with fewer people relocating to the city, the pool of job seekers is shrinking.
Recent data underscores the city's resilient labour market. Statistics Canada's jobs report for December showed Calgary's unemployment rate dipped to 6.8 per cent from 7.3 per cent. Over the past 12 months, Calgary posted the second-highest employment growth among Canadian cities, adding approximately 30,000 positions—a three per cent increase—trailing only Edmonton.
Afiba Nyamekye, Director of Economic Intelligence at Calgary Economic Development, urged caution, noting that December's gains included more part-time roles and fewer people were actively looking for work. "We're cautious about calling this a turning point," Nyamekye stated. The Conference Board report projects a major milestone: for the first time, more than one million people will be working in Calgary by 2027, representing a 26 per cent increase in employment since 2017.
Broader Economic Context and Outlook
While the energy sector remains a principal driver, the report emphasizes that it is not the city's only economic engine. The overall growth is occurring despite a slowing housing market and fewer housing starts, which typically stimulate economic activity.
The report concludes that Calgary, like all jurisdictions, must navigate the volatile path set by U.S. economic and trade policies. Despite the headwinds of soft oil prices and a cooling migration trend, the city's economy is demonstrating underlying resilience and is positioned for continued, albeit moderated, expansion throughout 2026 and beyond.
