The 2026 World Cup is the first tournament since prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket surged in popularity as novel ways to bet on sports. However, access to these platforms varies dramatically by location, exposing a widening global rift over how to regulate these markets.
Global Crackdown on Prediction Platforms
While fans in the United States can freely wager billions on the tournament, a growing number of countries are restricting access to prediction market websites and apps. In recent weeks, Spain, Indonesia, and India have joined a list that includes most of the European Union and large parts of Asia in implementing temporary or permanent measures to block platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Brazil took particularly aggressive action, shutting down 27 prediction platforms in April, including Kalshi, whose co-founder Luana Lopes Lara is Brazilian. The move forced the company to scramble after its recent launch in the country.
Regulatory Challenges
Regulators worldwide are intensifying scrutiny of prediction markets as these companies expand rapidly, offering financial contracts that blur the line between gambling and speculation. Some countries treat these contracts as gambling, subjecting them to betting laws, while others argue they should fall under securities or derivatives rules. The startups have exploited legal uncertainties to offer their products to customers even as regulators struggle to keep pace.
“Prediction markets are entering the same phase every novel financial primitive eventually enters: first hobbyist market, then mass attraction, then legitimacy fights,” said Dovey Wan, founding partner of Primitive Ventures, a backer of prediction market platform Opinion Labs. “The recent bans mean the category has become important enough to regulate.”
Defense and Criticism
Prediction market operators argue that their platforms provide valuable information by aggregating collective forecasts on economic indicators, geopolitical events, and more. Critics, however, contend that these contracts encourage excessive speculation and open new opportunities for insider trading, alongside ethical issues raised by allowing bets on war and other life-and-death matters.
“Betting isn’t new,” said Chris Holland, partner at Singaporean consulting firm HM Strategy. “What’s new is the structure.” Because prediction market contracts are typically classified as derivatives, they fall outside gambling licensing frameworks, he added. “That gap is an open invitation to insiders.”
Expanding Market
Although Kalshi and Polymarket dominate the prediction market space, many other players are expanding globally, including Opinion Labs, backed by Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao’s family office YZi Labs, and Limitless, supported by Coinbase Ventures. Several exchanges have also signed marketing deals with soccer leagues and teams ahead of the World Cup to boost visibility during the tournament.
