Toronto might be the poster child for a condo collapse in this country, but there is another market that is also headed for a historic meltdown, economists predict. For almost four years, prices in Vancouver's condo market have been either flat or falling, and according to a report from TD Economics, it is 'still searching for a floor.'
Vancouver Condo Sales Plummet
Vancouver condo sales fell 16 percent in the first four months of 2026 compared to last year, hitting their lowest, outside the pandemic, since 2018. That period marked a time when Vancouver's housing market was hit not only by interest rate hikes and tighter mortgage stress tests, but also by provincial measures designed to cool the market.
Economic Challenges in Greater Vancouver
Today, the economy of the Greater Vancouver Area is challenged on a number of fronts. The tariff war with the United States has hit manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and warehousing, resulting in a pullback in hiring, said TD economist Rishi Sondhi and economic analyst Paul Kim in their report. Finance, insurance, and real estate have also suffered because of the depressed housing market, pushing the unemployment rate in the Greater Vancouver Area up to 6.7 percent. Climbing mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war have likely also dampened demand. According to TD modeling, British Columbia is historically the province most sensitive to interest rate increases in the country.
Price Forecast and Comparison with Toronto
TD forecasts Vancouver condo prices will fall another 8 percent this year before flattening out in 2027. That will add up to a 15 percent drop from their peak in 2023, the steepest decline since at least 2005, which is the first period of available data, they said. As bad as that sounds, Vancouver is still better off than Toronto, mainly because the two cities have very different markets. Toronto's condo market, largely driven by investors, has been struggling with a historic supply glut as owners put their properties up for sale because of falling rents and higher carrying costs. 'The one-two punch of chilly demand and high supply has sent GTA condo prices down about 25 percent from their peak,' said Sondhi and Kim.
Vancouver's Unique Market Dynamics
In Vancouver, more people buy condos to live in them as the higher-priced housing market makes them an attainable entry point for ownership. End users are a less volatile base for demand than investors, and new listings have not climbed to the heights seen in Toronto. Nonetheless, it will be a long road to recovery. TD expects conditions to improve 'modestly' in 2027 as hiring picks up and lower prices entice more buyers, but soft population growth and a still 'muted' labor market will temper gains.
