As Canadian families prepare for Thanksgiving, a harsh reality is setting in at the grocery store. Food prices have climbed steadily, putting pressure on holiday budgets. While retailers like Walmart promote affordable meal bundles, the overall cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner is rising significantly.
The Turkey Price Surge
Turkey, the centrepiece of most Thanksgiving meals, is experiencing notable price increases. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates wholesale turkey prices rose about 40% in early October, primarily due to avian influenza and other diseases affecting poultry production.
According to Joseph Balagtas, agricultural economics professor at Purdue University, retail turkey prices could average $2.05 per pound in November, representing a 25% increase compared to 2024 prices. This means a typical 15-pound turkey could cost approximately $31, significantly more than previous years.
Bernt Nelson, an economist at AFBF, confirms that while prices vary between stores, the overall trend is clear: "Prices are up" for consumers across Canada and the United States.
Retail Promotions Versus Reality
Amid these price increases, major retailers are offering promotional meal deals. Walmart is selling a "holiday meal basket" serving 10 people for around $40, while Aldi offers a similar Thanksgiving bundle for the same price. Target has entered the market with a holiday meal for four at approximately $20.
However, these promotions come with important caveats. Walmart's current meal features 23 items compared to last year's 29-item bundle, though it feeds two additional people. The company is offering turkeys at $0.97 per pound, slightly higher than last year's $0.88 per pound promotion.
Political claims about these price changes have added confusion to the situation. Former President Donald Trump recently credited Republicans for lower Thanksgiving costs, but the reality is more complex given the actual price increases consumers are facing.
Broader Grocery Inflation Impacts
The turkey price surge is part of a broader pattern of food inflation. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, food-at-home prices increased by 2.7% from September 2024 to September 2025.
Thanksgiving side dishes and desserts are also feeling the price pressure. Sugar and sweets prices jumped 6.7% during the same period, while bakery products increased 2.7%. Fresh vegetables became 1.2% more expensive overall, with potatoes seeing a 3.7% price hike.
Lance Jungmeyer, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, notes that green beans and tomatoes will likely cost more this Thanksgiving, as many are imported from Mexico and affected by various economic factors.
Some items have become more affordable, including frozen vegetables (down 0.7%), eggs (1.3% lower), and fats and oils (1.7% less expensive). However, these decreases provide limited relief against the broader trend of rising food costs.
Expert Tips for Cost-Conscious Celebrations
Despite the challenging price environment, experts suggest several strategies for managing Thanksgiving costs. Jada Thompson, an associate professor of agricultural economics at the University of Arkansas, recommends "looking for deals and trying not to overproduce" to stay within budget.
Practical cost-saving approaches include:
- Choosing a smaller turkey to reduce overall expense
- Preparing smaller portions or fewer dishes requiring fewer ingredients
- Opting for frozen fruits and vegetables, which are often more affordable
- Comparing prices between store brands and name brands
- Searching for discounts and coupons specifically for holiday foods
- Shopping early to secure the best promotions
- Asking guests to contribute dishes to distribute costs
Nelson notes that as Thanksgiving approaches, retailers will likely increase promotions on turkeys and traditional meal staples, providing opportunities for savvy shoppers.
Thompson emphasizes that higher prices don't mean abandoning traditions. "That doesn't mean we can't have festivities," she says. "That means we will probably have to try to adjust those festivities for a tighter budget this year."
Despite financial concerns, research shows most Canadians remain excited about Thanksgiving celebrations. A September survey by FMI/The Food Industry Association found that 89% of grocery shoppers feel at least somewhat excited about Thanksgiving, with two-thirds planning to serve traditional turkey with mashed potatoes, stuffing, and vegetable side dishes.
