MONTEZUMA, Kan. (AP) — Orville Williams has maintained a healthy wheat crop on his 2,600-acre farm in Montezuma, Kansas, every year since his teenage years. It has not always been straightforward. Difficult economic times in the 1980s and various drought events have affected yields over the decades. However, this season feels particularly dire.
“All in all, it’s not going to be a good year,” said Williams, aged 76.
Record-setting drought combined with hotter-than-average temperatures and sharp temperature drops have impacted much of the United States early this year, including the Plains region. Drought conditions have exacerbated the spread of wheat streak mosaic virus and barley yellow dwarf virus, which reduce crop potential. Alongside rising input costs for fertilizer, diesel fuel, and tariffs, long-time wheat farmers report significant hardship.
“It’s kind of a double whammy,” Williams added.
Crop estimates highlight the severity. Growers will see their smallest wheat crop in terms of production since 1972, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, with 1.56 billion bushels this year, down 21% from 2025. This is particularly damaging to Kansas, one of the top wheat-producing states in the U.S.
An analysis of USDA data shows that only in five of the past 40 years has Kansas’ wheat crop been in such poor condition, with 58% of the crop rated as “poor” or “very poor” as of May 17. The last time fields were in similarly bad condition was during a severe drought in 2023.
“It’s very tough conditions that growers are faced with right now,” said Kansas State agronomist Romulo Lolloto. He noted that this affects consumers, “whether it is through going to a bakery and having higher bread prices, or whether it’s through losing some of the international market out there for the U.S.”
With this year so challenging, many wheat growers have been forced to file for crop insurance or consider relying on other crops to weather the uncertainties. Williams saw close to 100 bushels of wheat per acre on irrigated land last year, but this year might only yield 30 to 40 bushels. He splits his wheat crop between irrigated and dryland, where farmers depend on rainfall and soil moisture, and there, he might only see 10 to 15 bushels per acre.
Williams and other farmers acknowledge they will lose money this year. “I guess my attitude is: Stay the course. Don’t make any new purchases,” he said. “And forget your wants and just do your needs.”
Weather and Climate Challenges
The weather is unpredictable, and farmers’ costs are mounting. Climate change, caused by burning gas, oil, and coal, has made farming increasingly challenging over the years, experts say, and wheat is no exception. Several wheat farmers described worsening extremes this year, including intense winter heat, late freezes, and ongoing rainfall shortages.
The U.S. has also lost ground in the global wheat market to Russia and the European Union. National wheat acreage has dropped over the past several years for various reasons, said Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist.
“There’s certainly a downward trend for wheat in the Great Plains and elsewhere in the U.S. based on a number of factors, and certainly the weather challenges over the last couple of decades have been a big part of that,” Rippey said.
Despite this, wheat remains the nation’s third field crop by planted acreage, production, and gross farm receipts after corn and soybeans, according to the USDA. The U.S. is one of the world’s largest wheat producers by volume annually and a major exporter.
Thousands of U.S. farmers rely on wheat as a key livelihood, but factors beyond their control have made their work more difficult. Dry conditions sped up crop growth, which is not a positive sign for harvest quality. By the end of the first full week of May, 86% of wheat crops in Kansas had produced a seed head, while 61% was typical in the previous 10 years. The plant is “genetically programmed” to produce a head before dying, Rippey said, but if done too early, the result is often poor quality.
Only 32.4 million acres (13.1 million hectares) of wheat were planted this year, and harvested acreage hit just 22 million, marking abandonment at slightly above 32% of this year’s crop, according to USDA estimates. With the exception of the 2022-2023 cycle, only a handful of other years in history have seen higher U.S. winter wheat abandonment, Rippey noted. In Kansas, about 17% of the crop is being abandoned this year.
Economic Pressures and Outlook
“Rain makes grain,” said Mike Nickelson, a wheat and corn farmer in western Kansas. “That’s the whole key. We can do the very best we can do and then if we don’t get the rain, then it makes it pretty tough.”
Forecasters predict a substantial El Nino, a cyclical natural process where patches of the equatorial Pacific warm and alter global weather patterns, including rainfall. In the U.S., this is expected to mean warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer, so drought relief could be months away.
“It seems like we’re the ones out trying to feed the world and we’re the ones suffering the most,” Nickelson, 60, added. “My son is here farming with me and I’d really like to transition him to help take over the farm. I’m like, really, do I want him to have to do this? I mean, it’s a great life, but man, right now it’s just tough.”
The war in Iran has sent fuel prices soaring. Williams drives 150 to 200 miles (240 to 320 kilometers) a day, and diesel is up nearly $2 per gallon from one year ago. Costs for seed, fertilizer, and more are rapidly adding up. Some growers bought fertilizer ahead of time for this season, but they worry about the year ahead. Farmers have already been navigating the consequences of the Trump administration’s rocky trade policy.
Nickelson said urea, a type of fertilizer, previously cost $400 a ton. He is now paying between $600 and $700 a ton. “You hope to break even, but I’m not sure we’re gonna do that,” he said.
Limited Options for Relief
There are few options for farmers to make up for losses. For Ben Palen, a fifth-generation farmer and farming consultant, solutions are tough, and relief feels minimal. Crop insurance to account for losses only goes so far. The Trump administration has offered one-time bridge payments for qualifying farmers of various crops to aid increasing costs amid trade disruptions and inflation, but those funds are also limited.
Allowing wheat to fallow—leaving it unused to prep land for the next crop—or planting something unplanned are not viable options. It is not just a matter of adding more water to the land to try to get wheat to grow, and it is difficult for farmers to change course to another crop at this point in the year.
“It’s a little late now to try to plant something on say, a wheat crop that’s failed on a particular farm,” Palen, 70, said, “because we just don’t have soil moisture to get another crop started.”
“This is probably about as challenging of a time to be a farmer that I can recollect,” he added. “It’s a pretty serious situation.”
