Analysts at the Bank of Nova Scotia have issued a bullish upgrade for Shopify Inc., pointing to the Ottawa-based e-commerce giant's pioneering work in agentic artificial intelligence (AI) as a powerful future earnings engine. In a note dated January 5, Scotia's Kevin Krishnaratne and Richard Chu raised their rating on Shopify's stock to sector outperform from sector perform and increased their price target to US$200 from US$165.
Three Pillars of Optimism for AI-Driven Commerce
The analysts outlined three core reasons for their heightened optimism regarding Shopify's position in the emerging AI retail landscape. First, they believe more accurate AI-powered answer engines will directly benefit the small- and medium-sized businesses that form Shopify's merchant base.
Second, the rise of agentic-commerce (or a-commerce) is expected to accelerate the overall share of retail conducted online. Most critically, the third pillar is Shopify's early lead in adopting a-commerce tools for its merchants, which the Scotia team states places the company well ahead of peers.
GenAI's ability to source and aggregate the collective wisdom of every product review, user experience and expert opinion online to deliver recommendations that are perfectly matched to shoppers on a 1x1 basis could be a major unlocking of retail dollars, Krishnaratne and Chu wrote.
Partnership with OpenAI as a Strategic Catalyst
A significant factor in this analysis is Shopify's strategic partnership with OpenAI Inc., announced in September 2025. The collaboration centers on Instant Checkout, a tool that allows users of the ChatGPT chatbot to search for, select, and purchase products directly within the AI interface.
This deal grants over one million Shopify merchants access to ChatGPT's massive user base, which reported 700 million active weekly users as of August. Under the agreement, Shopify will continue to manage checkout payments, remitting a small fee to OpenAI for purchases facilitated through ChatGPT.
Financial Forecasts and Market Context
Based on the potential of this AI integration, the Scotia analysts are forecasting that Shopify's Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) growth will outpace consensus estimates. They project GMV growth could reach closer to 37% this year, versus a consensus of approximately 23%. Long-term, they expect GMV to settle at a rate between those two figures for years to come as AI drives an initial sales surge.
Shopify's shares closed at US$167.44 on Tuesday. The new Scotia target of US$200 aligns with price targets already set by analysts at RBC Capital Markets, CIBC Capital Markets, and National Bank of Canada Capital Markets. The average 12-month price target among 50 analysts tracked by Bloomberg is US$175.95.
The company's most recent earnings report in November showed a 32% year-over-year revenue increase, which management attributed partly to the expansion of its AI tools for sellers. These tools assist merchants with building online stores, writing product descriptions, and generating images. Shopify is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings on February 11.
