The optimism that has long defined the Edmonton Oilers fanbase during the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl era is facing its most severe test yet in the 2025-26 NHL season. While slow starts have become an unfortunate hallmark for the franchise in recent years, leading to coaching changes, the current campaign presents a uniquely troubling picture devoid of the positive underlying indicators that previously offered hope.
A History of Slow Starts and Coaching Casualties
The Oilers are no strangers to poor autumn performances. In fact, sluggish beginnings have directly cost two head coaches their jobs. Dave Tippett was dismissed in the early winter of 2022 after 44 games, and Jay Woodcroft was let go in the fall of 2024 after just 13 games. Last season under Kris Knoblauch also began with significant struggles. However, in each of those prior instances, a critical analytical metric provided a silver lining and a reason to believe a turnaround was imminent.
That key metric is the Grade A shots differential—a measure of high-danger scoring chances for and against. In past poor starts, even when the win-loss record was ugly, the Oilers were consistently generating more premium chances than they allowed. This season, that foundational positive has vanished.
The Alarming Disappearance of a Key Positive Indicator
When Tippett was fired during the 2021-22 season, the Oilers had 49 points in 44 games, a .560 points percentage. The team was scoring 3.2 goals per game while allowing 3.3. Despite the mediocrity, they boasted a positive Grade A shots differential of +1.3 per game (14.0 for, 12.7 against). This statistical strength foretold the surge that followed, as Edmonton racked up 55 points in its final 38 games under Woodcroft for a stellar .720 points percentage, with an even better scoring chance differential.
The pattern held during other rough patches. In Woodcroft's first 38 games that same season, the differential was a robust +2.1. Even in the first 27 games of the 2023-24 season, a period that saw both Woodcroft and Knoblauch behind the bench and yielded only 27 points, the team maintained a strong +4.0 Grade A shots differential.
A New and More Worrisome Reality in 2025-26
The current season tells a fundamentally different story. Through the first 27 games, mirroring the 27-point output of 2023-24, the underlying process is broken. The Oilers' Grade A shots differential stands at a negative -0.8 per game (13.3 for, 14.1 against).
This number is a stark departure from history and paints the portrait of a genuinely mediocre team, or one in decline. The issue extends beyond goaltending, pointing directly to systemic problems: poor defensive play and a lacklustre offensive performance at even strength, with the power play being a rare bright spot. While there have been glimpses of improved defensive focus in recent games, the overall trend through nearly a third of the season offers little evidence that this is a team poised for a dramatic recovery like those of years past.
For a franchise and a fanbase built around championship aspirations with two of the world's best players, the 2025-26 start isn't just another bump in the road. The data suggests it may be the sign of a deeper, more concerning problem that prior slow starts did not possess.
