The Edmonton Oilers have a significant problem on their hands with forward Trent Frederic, and the potential solution might involve taking him out of the lineup entirely. Despite a major off-season commitment, Frederic's offensive production has nearly vanished, sparking debate about his immediate future with the team.
A Disappointing Start to a Long-Term Deal
The situation is particularly concerning given the context of Frederic's contract. The 26-year-old winger signed an eight-year deal with the Oilers worth $3.85 million per season. The expectation for a player with that term and financial commitment is clear: contribute consistent secondary scoring and robust two-way play. Through 26 games, Frederic has managed just two goals, a far cry from the five or six he might reasonably be expected to have at this point.
The underlying numbers paint an even bleaker picture. Frederic has generated a mere 16 Grade A scoring chances this season, averaging just 0.6 high-danger opportunities per game. While his conversion rate on those chances is 12.5%, the sheer lack of quality looks means he is, as analysts note, "not scoring and not close to scoring." The statistical expectation suggests he should have only about three goals, indicating his actual output isn't a result of bad luck but a genuine lack of offensive threat.
Defensive Woes Compound the Problem
When a scorer isn't scoring, they must contribute in other areas. Unfortunately for Frederic and the Oilers, his defensive play has also been a liability. Analysis reveals he has the highest rate of mistakes leading to Grade A shots against among all Oilers wingers. This defensive frailty negates much of the value from his physical play, a trait that was part of his appeal when signed.
The coaching staff, led by head coach Kris Knoblauch, has tried numerous tactical adjustments to spark Frederic's game. He has been deployed on the top line for a skill boost and demoted to the fourth line for a simplified role. He has seen time on the power play and has been shifted between his natural centre position and the wing. None of these experiments have yielded the desired turnaround.
The Press Box: A Logical Next Step
With all on-ice options seemingly exhausted, one clear alternative remains: a stint as a healthy scratch. The argument for sitting Frederic is straightforward. The primary job of the coaching staff is to ice the lineup that gives the team the best chance to win each night. Currently, David Tomasek is cited as a player who, on merit, deserves to play ahead of Frederic based on current performance levels.
Some may worry about losing Frederic's physical edge, but rookie Connor Clattenburg has reportedly provided more consistent physicality this season. Removing Frederic from the lineup would not necessarily create a void in that department.
The decision is a tough one, involving a player the organization invested in long-term. However, with the Oilers in a perpetual win-now mode, sentiment cannot override performance. A game or two watching from the press box could provide Frederic with a needed reset and a different perspective, while allowing a more effective player to contribute on the ice. For a team with Stanley Cup aspirations, every game matters, and the lineup must be chosen on merit, not contract size.
