The Toronto Maple Leafs are facing their most challenging season in recent memory, with statistical analysis giving them a mere 6.9% chance of making the playoffs as they struggle to find consistency on the ice.
Statistical Reality Sets In
According to moneypuck.com, the Leafs' playoff prospects rank among the worst in the National Hockey League. Only the Nashville Predators, with 6% odds, sit below Toronto in the statistical projections. The numbers reflect Toronto's disappointing 10-11-3 record through 23 games, leaving them with just 23 points heading into their Saturday night matchup against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Four NHL teams have accumulated fewer points than the Leafs: the Vancouver Canucks and Buffalo Sabres (22 each), Calgary Flames (21), and Nashville Predators (20). The situation becomes increasingly concerning when examining the team's performance within their division.
Division Struggles Compound Problems
The Maple Leafs have posted a concerning 2-6-0 record within the Atlantic Division, with one of those victories coming in the season opener against Montreal on October 8. This divisional performance creates significant obstacles for playoff qualification.
Coach Craig Berube maintains a glass-half-full perspective, noting that the Leafs sit just five points behind Ottawa Senators for third place in the Atlantic Division and six points behind Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers for a wildcard spot.
However, the reality remains that six teams separate Toronto from the second wildcard position, and they must leapfrog three Atlantic Division rivals to secure a top-three divisional spot.
Coaching Uncertainty and Lineup Instability
Pressure continues to mount on Coach Berube, whose future with the team appears increasingly uncertain. The recent 4-2 loss to Washington Capitals, where an early 2-0 lead evaporated, highlighted the team's ongoing struggles.
Lineup consistency has become a significant issue, with players like Max Domi experiencing dramatic role changes—from playing on Auston Matthews' line in Columbus to being a healthy scratch in Washington. The failed experiment with Sammy Blais, who was claimed off waivers from Montreal in October only to be reclaimed by the Canadiens after minimal impact, further illustrates the team's instability.
Since returning from injury, Matthews and his line have been outshot 17-5 during 23.5 minutes of five-on-five play, indicating deeper systemic issues beyond individual performances.
Limited Bright Spots in Growing Gloom
Goaltender Joseph Woll has emerged as one of the few consistent performers, delivering an excellent performance in Wednesday's overtime victory against Columbus. However, as the Washington game demonstrated, strong goaltending alone cannot compensate for the team's broader challenges.
General Manager Brad Treliving expressed confidence in Berube on November 18 while criticizing the team's "too much vanilla" performance. Unfortunately, little has changed in the team's play since that vote of confidence.
The Maple Leafs' nine-year consecutive playoff streak now hangs in the balance as the team enters the final weekend of November with diminishing hopes and increasing pressure to reverse their fortunes.
