A new Leger poll commissioned by the Association for Canadian Studies reveals that Canadians outside Alberta support nine of the province's upcoming non-separatism referendum questions at levels comparable to or exceeding support within Alberta. The poll, conducted ahead of the Oct. 19 vote, tested nine questions covering immigration, election rules, and Alberta's place in the federation. The tenth question, on beginning legal steps toward a binding separation vote, was excluded from the survey.
National support often surpasses Alberta's
On several questions, Albertans were cooler than the rest of the country. For example, requiring newcomers to wait 12 months before qualifying for social supports drew 68 per cent support in Alberta, the lowest of any region, compared to 84 per cent in Atlantic Canada and 75 per cent nationally. Similarly, charging non-permanent residents fees for health care and education garnered 65 per cent support in Alberta, again trailing the national average of 73 per cent.
Jack Jedwab, president of the Association for Canadian Studies, attributed the strong national support to question wording rather than a broad desire to reshape the federation. “This says less about a broad national desire to remake the federation than about the way the questions are framed,” he said in an email.
Immigration and election questions draw strongest backing
The five immigration and election questions received the highest overall support, ranging from 69 to 76 per cent nationally and 64 to 76 per cent in Alberta. The immigration question—asking whether Alberta should take more control to cut immigration to sustainable levels, prioritize economic migrants, and give residents first priority for new jobs—received 69 per cent national support, with Quebec leading at 78 per cent and Alberta at 64 per cent. Jedwab noted that Quebecers are “very open to suggestions that provide more control over immigration,” especially when the wording implies no cost.
A law limiting provincial services like health care and schooling to citizens, permanent residents, and approved immigrants drew 74 per cent national support (71 per cent in Alberta). Requiring proof of citizenship to vote earned 76 per cent support both nationally and in Alberta. Atlantic Canada was the most receptive region, topping four of the five immigration questions.
Constitutional questions see lower support
The four constitutional questions attracted less national backing. Handing provinces the power to pick judges for higher courts received 55 per cent support. Abolishing the “unelected Senate” drew 57 per cent. Giving provincial law priority over federal law in shared areas got 64 per cent. The only question to miss a national majority asked whether provinces could opt out of federal programs in areas like health care while keeping federal money—only 47 per cent supported that.
Quebec led on constitutional questions, with 67 per cent support for abolishing the Senate and 65 per cent for provincial selection of judges. On the opt-out question, Quebec’s 59 per cent was one of only two regional majorities, alongside British Columbia (51 per cent). Ontario was least supportive, sitting lowest on judges (47 per cent), opt-out (40 per cent), and provincial-law priority (57 per cent).
