The federal Liberals often refer to themselves as Canada's natural governing party, and historical data suggests they may be right, despite the risks this poses to democracy.
Since 1900, the Liberals have been in power 70% of the time. Currently, they are on a 14-year uninterrupted run starting in 2015, with no need to face voters again until 2029. If current polling holds, they could secure a massive majority, extending their rule to 2034—nearly two decades.
Liberal Dominance and Conservative Struggles
Beginning in 2015, the Liberals—whose power base is centered in eastern and central Canada and vote-rich cities like Toronto—have defeated the Conservatives in four consecutive elections. After the 2025 election, they achieved a majority government thanks to four Conservative floor crossers. One NDP defector also joined them, though the NDP's collapse began earlier.
The NDP reached its peak under the late Jack Layton in 2011, winning 103 seats and 30.6% of the popular vote, becoming the official opposition to Stephen Harper's Conservative majority. In the 2025 election, the NDP captured only 6.29% of the vote and seven seats, now reduced to five after one MP defected to the Liberals and another quit to run in the Quebec election.
The NDP's Decline Benefits Liberals
Conservatives need a viable NDP to split the progressive vote with the Liberals. The NDP's demise is good news for Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals, but bad news for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. If the NDP disappears entirely, it would further solidify Liberal dominance in future elections.
Modern political history—under Brian Mulroney, Jean Chretien, Stephen Harper, and Justin Trudeau—suggests governments typically have a "best before" date of roughly 10 years before being replaced. Many expected the Trudeau Liberals to lose to Poilievre's Conservatives in the 2025 election. However, Trudeau resigned, and the Liberals elected Carney, triggering one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history.
Floor-Crossing and Media Coverage
The Liberals, who could have fallen to third place under Trudeau, instead won a strong minority under Carney. Floor-crossing elevated them to a majority of 174 seats—recapturing direct control of the House of Commons for the first time since 2015—compared to 169 seats (soon 168) for the combined opposition in the 343-seat legislature. This gives the Liberals control of Commons committees, reducing the opposition's ability to influence legislation and hold the government accountable.
Carney's anti-Americanism and economic nationalism, in the age of Donald Trump, have resonated with Canadian voters. Favorable polling shows a double-digit Liberal lead nationally, and media coverage of Carney often borders on hagiography, reminiscent of Justin Trudeau's early years.
Conservative MP John Brassard, chair of the Commons ethics committee, recently admonished reporters to "do your goddamn job," arguing that the media have become so Liberal-friendly that the opposition is held to greater account than the government. He noted that YouTubers often uncover more about Liberal scandals than traditional journalists.
Conservatives allege that legacy print media are beholden to the Liberals because they receive government subsidies—a separate issue from the $1.4 billion annually supplied to the state-funded CBC, with Carney pledging a $150-million increase in the last federal budget.
Possibility of a Liberal Dynasty
Given these factors, many Canadians believe the media is in a conflict of interest regarding Liberal coverage. While a week is a lifetime in politics, the emergence of a federal Liberal dynasty similar to the Progressive Conservatives' 44-year reign in Alberta (1971–2015) or 42-year rule in Ontario (1943–1985) is not beyond possibility.
