As the new year begins, the global and political landscape feels increasingly volatile, amplified by the relentless pace of social media and instant communication. Against this tense backdrop, Quebec and Canada are poised for a year of significant political drama and consequential legal decisions that will shape the province's future.
The Fate of the CAQ and François Legault
At the heart of Quebec's political uncertainty is the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and its leader, Premier François Legault. Despite Legault's public insistence that he will remain to lead the party into the next general election, scheduled for October 2026, his position appears increasingly precarious. With the party's support sagging in polls, internal pressure is likely to mount for him to step aside in an effort to revive the CAQ's fortunes before voters go to the polls.
Should Legault depart, the immediate focus will shift to a potential leadership race. The question of who, if anyone, could resuscitate the party's prospects will become the central narrative for the governing coalition as it fights to avoid electoral defeat.
Opposition Parties in Flux
The opposition is also navigating critical transitions. The Quebec Liberal Party is set to select a new leader, widely expected to be Charles Milliard. He will take the helm following the departure of Pablo Rodriguez, who left amid allegations of misconduct during the leadership campaign. Milliard's monumental task will be to rejuvenate a party still reeling from a devastating last election and the stain of the Rodriguez affair.
His success is crucial for countering the resurgent Parti Québécois under Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who remains committed to holding another sovereignty referendum. The coming year will test Plamondon's mettle under increased scrutiny; he has already shown signs of a thin skin when faced with criticism of his absolutist stance. The leadership strength of all three major parties will directly influence whether Quebec is destined for another divisive referendum debate.
Federal Scene and Pivotal Supreme Court Decisions
On the federal stage, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre faces a leadership review at his party's convention in January 2026, looking vulnerable after losing the previous year's election and his own riding. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mark Carney, while still enjoying relatively solid poll numbers, will face pressure to deliver tangible results as he approaches his second year in office. A major test will be the formal renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, a file where Canadians have high expectations for his handling of trade relations with the United States.
Closer to home, the judiciary will play a starring role in 2026. The Supreme Court of Canada is expected to rule on the constitutionality of Quebec's secularism law, Bill 21. Shielded by the notwithstanding clause, the law is likely to be upheld, potentially giving the CAQ a modest boost in public opinion. However, an unlikely decision striking it down could trigger nationalist outrage and further propel the PQ.
Additionally, various lawsuits challenging provisions of Quebec's language law, Bill 96, will continue to wind through the courts. Finally, the Supreme Court will decide whether to hear the Quebec government's appeal of rulings that struck down key parts of Bill 40, the CAQ's legislation to replace English school boards.
The Constant Challenges and a Unifying Hope
Beyond the political and legal battles, persistent issues like Quebec's record deficit, ongoing healthcare and education struggles, and the high cost of living will continue to dominate headlines throughout the year.
Yet, amid the turmoil and division, there remains a hopeful prospect for unity: the potential for a deep playoff run by the Montreal Canadiens. In a year of heated debate, the success of the beloved hockey team could offer a rare and welcome common ground for all Quebecers.
