Former Quebec Premier Robert Bourassa was reportedly famous for saying that the province was easier to govern when the Montreal Canadiens are winning. For Christine Fréchette, this might be partly true, but there is more to her success story.
A New Premier and a Boost in Polls
The new premier, who took the reins of Francois Legault's flailing Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) last month, has managed to make the CAQ bounce back in the polls, to the point where it could shake things up significantly for the election set to happen in October. This week's Leger poll for Le Journal de Montreal found that Frechette's party went up nine points since Legault's departure. It now stands at 22 per cent of voting intentions among decided voters, in third place behind the Parti Quebecois and the Quebec Liberals.
The front page of the newspaper on Wednesday showed the new premier, all smiles, sporting a Habs jersey. In big bold letters, it read: "A Frechette effect on voting intentions." Sebastien Dallaire, Leger's executive vice-president for Eastern Canada, said historical evidence shows that when people are in a very good mood because of a variety of reasons, which may include their hockey team's good performance, it tends to benefit incumbents.
Hockey or Leadership?
But he said it is "a little bit far-fetched" to give the Montreal Canadiens too much credit. "I think it's much more related to Christine Frechette's performance and the effort she has made at trying to change the dynamics, change the way that people think about the CAQ, and she has been able to succeed so far," said Dallaire in an interview.
Quebec is in a unique position not seen in decades with five political parties now in play. While the PQ is still on track to form government — probably a minority — Quebec Liberals, the CAQ, the Quebec Conservatives and Quebec Solidaire are all poised to win seats. Dallaire said this Leger poll marks the first one with all the political leaders in place in the Oct. 5 election, and it is showing that there is "an entirely new race in front of us."
Poll Numbers and Demographics
The PQ is at 30 per cent, the Liberals behind with 28 per cent and the CAQ at 22 per cent. The Conservatives and Solidaires are at 11 and eight per cent, respectively. But a closer look at the numbers shows that Frechette has seen her party's numbers improve among francophones, women, and people over the age of 55 — demographics that could throw a wrench in the electoral projections should they move upward.
"We now have three parties who are possibly contending in the upcoming election," said Dallaire. "While the CAQ remains a little bit behind, it is now back in the conversation." For months, Philippe J. Fournier's Quebec125 polling aggregator website had the CAQ completely eradicated from the electoral map with zero seats. But his new modelling projections on Thursday showed the CAQ had climbed to an average of nine seats.
Implications for the Election
It is not nearly enough to form government, but just enough to sow division for the other parties and potentially cause turmoil in close races across the province, said Fournier. "It's hurting the Liberals to an extent, it's hurting the Conservatives for their dreams of having at least 12 seats to have the threshold for party status, and it could potentially hurt the PQ, because... it makes it incredibly difficult to have a majority," he added.
