A former Alberta premier and a prominent separatist found common ground at a recent debate, both predicting that Premier Danielle Smith's United Conservative Party (UCP) is on the verge of a split. The event, hosted by the Calgary-based Aristotle Foundation on Monday, featured Jason Kenney, who founded the UCP through the merger of the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties, and Keith Wilson, a lawyer and leading figure in the Alberta separation movement known for representing key participants in the 2022 Freedom Convoy protests.
Divergent Views on Separation
Kenney argued that separatists lack a credible plan to manage the economic consequences of leaving Canada, stating they 'can't be taken seriously.' Wilson countered that federalists offer only 'fear' and no solution to Alberta's longstanding grievances within the federation. Despite their differences, both agreed on the political fallout for the UCP.
Kenney Warns of Political Consequences
Kenney cautioned that continued division could benefit the federal Liberals, who he said are polling unusually high in Alberta due to fear stoked by the secessionist movement and a 'rally around the flag' effect following U.S. President Donald Trump's threats. 'Provincially, this movement is going to split the governing conservative party right down the middle if this carries on,' Kenney said. He questioned how Alberta would gain from more federal Liberal MPs or an NDP premier like Naheed Nenshi.
Wilson Acknowledges Risk
Wilson did not dispute Kenney's assessment. 'If we're not successful with independence, we know there's likely to be a split in the UCP, and the NDP is likely to be the next government,' he said. He argued that this reality underscores the urgency for his movement to persuade more Albertans to support separation.
Upcoming Referendum
With Smith's referendum on separation set for October 19, both sides have less than 150 days to rally support. Prime Minister Mark Carney warned Monday that using separation as a bargaining chip is a 'very dangerous bluff.' The debate highlighted the deepening rift within Alberta's conservative politics, with potential implications for the province's future direction.
