Disgruntled separatists among Alberta's Conservatives realize that ditching Premier Danielle Smith would be political suicide, yet they still intend to try. Taking down the premier in retaliation for what they perceive as her betrayal of their sacred cause will inevitably splinter the United Conservative Party (UCP). That will almost certainly lead to an election and a new government, likely one led by the NDP under Naheed Nenshi.
To ardent separatists, the UCP is simply a vessel to ferry them to the promised land of an independent Alberta. So when Smith blew a hole in its hull last week with her strong support for a united Canada, that mode of transportation became surplus to requirements. Therefore, let it sink alongside Smith's premiership.
A wise man once said: Before seeking revenge, dig two graves. The Conservative movement, in both Alberta and the rest of Canada, should have that sage warning stamped across its party stationery.
Ever since the Meech Lake debacle almost four decades ago, in which then-prime minister Brian Mulroney tried and failed to get Quebec to endorse the Constitution, the Tories have been their own worst enemy. That is particularly true in Alberta. The Reform party demolished the old Progressive Conservative foundations federally, while those Wildrose upstarts upset the status quo at the provincial level. Through it all ran a separatist current, sometimes more strident than others. That time-to-leave sentiment truly ignited during the Justin Trudeau decade, one in which the federal Liberals did more to fan those independence flames than any other regime in Canadian history.
Smith rode that righteous anger to become premier, a remarkable reincarnation considering her political banishment following the infamous party-crossing she led as Wildrose leader in December 2014. So it wasn't surprising that hardcore separatists saw her as their best hope to reach the promised land. She didn't have to wave the independence flag — though it would be wonderful if she did — but simply open the door, then stand aside as they pulled enough Albertans through it.
At first, she did. Smith made it easier for a referendum on separation to be held and fired up the base with passionate attacks against Ottawa, while pushing for ever-more provincial powers. But then Trudeau was forced out and Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived. For separatists, this would become a slow-motion replay of that infamous floor-crossing — Smith joining the enemy at the worst possible moment.
Last week came the coup de grace as Smith went on the attack, telling Albertans it would cost $400 billion if we separated, and later, at the premier's dinner in Calgary, leaving no doubt where she now stood. 'I still believe Canada can work. I believe it's working better every day, and it can work even better in the future if we keep fighting together for it,' she told the crowd to somewhat queasy applause.
