Former Vice-President Kamala Harris has recently dropped several not-so-subtle hints about a potential 2028 presidential run. Current polls, however, show California Governor Gavin Newsom as the leading likely Democratic candidate. Many pundits and insiders consider Harris damaged goods after her failed 2024 campaign against Donald Trump, making her less attractive to major donors. The Los Angeles Times reported that among top donors to the biggest pro-Harris super PAC in 2024, several do not plan to support her again, and others did not respond.
This apparent lack of enthusiasm might seem ominous for Harris, but Larry Elder argues that it overlooks a crucial factor: her unwavering support among Black women. While Harris lost every swing state and performed worse than Joe Biden among nearly every demographic group, she excelled with Black women, securing over 92% of their vote according to a Washington Post exit poll. This was a higher percentage than Biden received from this group.
Newsom, like many Democrats, privately doubted Biden's capacity to run for re-election. However, he knew that Black female voters, the most loyal segment of the Democratic base, would resent a white male candidate pushing aside Harris, who could have become the first female and first Black female president. Consequently, Newsom refrained from challenging Biden publicly.
Many Black women view criticism of Harris—such as jokes about her laugh or comments about her speaking style—as both sexist and racist. In 2021, TheGrio published an article titled "Can a sista get a break? Kamala Harris is an easy scapegoat amid media's broadside against her." The author, Sophia A. Nelson, noted that Black women often feel disrespected and undervalued despite their loyalty to the Democratic Party. She wrote, "Black women are always the spectators in the arena, versus being allowed the space to be one of the victors."
South Carolina is expected to hold an early Democratic primary in 2028. About 60% of its Democratic primary voters are Black, and of those, 60% to 65% are Black women. Elder questions how Newsom will explain his candidacy to these voters, who feel their loyalty has gone unrewarded. Simply attacking Trump as a "fascist" will not be enough, Elder concludes.
