The Population Puzzle: Why Calgary's Headcount Remains a Complex Calculation
For more than five years, the City of Calgary has not conducted its own municipal census, raising questions about how the growing metropolis tracks its population as it approaches the significant milestone of two million residents. The last official city census occurred in 2019, while the most recent federal census data dates back to 2021, leaving a substantial gap in accurate, up-to-date demographic information.
The Disappearing Municipal Census
Historically, Calgary conducted annual civic censuses to monitor population changes, but this practice was discontinued as a cost-saving measure following the cancellation of the 2020 count due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This decision has transformed population tracking into what some describe as "largely a guessing game" in recent years, with various government agencies producing different estimates using varying methodologies.
Conflicting Numbers from Different Sources
In 2025, the City of Calgary estimated its population at approximately 1,562,600 residents, with the wider census metropolitan area reaching 1,839,000 people according to the city's population outlook. Meanwhile, Statistics Canada calculated a slightly different figure of 1,836,012 for the metropolitan region. The provincial government, using Statistics Canada data as its foundation, estimated Calgary's population at 1,612,834.
"You can think of it as something that complements the census, in a sense," explained Sebastian Lavoie, senior analyst at the Centre for Demography at Statistics Canada. "The census is quite the undertaking, which is a reason why it's only done every so often — it's a big thing."
How Population Estimates Are Calculated
Between official censuses, governments at municipal, provincial, and federal levels rely on the Demographic Estimate Program (DEP) to calculate population figures. This process begins with the most recent census data as a baseline, then incorporates statistics including:
- Births and deaths
- Immigration numbers
- Migration between cities and provinces
- Data from agencies like Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada
- Information from the Canada Revenue Agency
Lavoie detailed the adjustment process: "After a census is conducted, Statistics Canada proceeds with further studies to try to figure out how many people might have been missed by the census for various reasons. It gives us this figure that we can add to adjust the census counts. That's our starting point. That's a regular process — every census cycle is the same."
The Challenge of Accurate Counting
With the next federal census scheduled for May and results potentially not available until early next year, Calgary continues to rely on these estimates and projections. The 2021 federal census pegged Calgary's population at 1.3 million, but significant growth has occurred since then, particularly as the city prepares to reach the two-million resident milestone.
The discrepancy between different government estimates highlights the challenges of tracking population in real-time without regular municipal censuses. Many industries and government portfolios depend on accurate, current demographic data for planning purposes, making the estimates crucial despite their limitations.
As Calgary continues its growth trajectory toward two million residents, the question remains whether estimates and projections can truly indicate how close the city is to reaching this significant population benchmark, or whether the absence of regular municipal censuses leaves too much uncertainty in the calculations.
