The 2025 Montreal municipal election delivered a stunning political upset that left many observers questioning how Luc Rabouin and Projet Montreal managed to squander what appeared to be an unassailable lead. Despite commanding early polling advantages and a well-oiled political machine, the party suffered a decisive defeat that has reshaped Montreal's political landscape.
The Perfect Storm of Political Miscalculations
Projet Montreal entered the election cycle with significant advantages. As the incumbent party with Luc Rabouin positioned to succeed the popular Valerie Plante, they seemed poised for continued dominance. However, several critical errors created a perfect storm that ultimately sank their campaign.
The leadership transition proved problematic from the start. Rabouin struggled to emerge from Plante's shadow while simultaneously failing to establish his own distinct political identity. Voters who had supported Plante found themselves uncertain about her successor's vision and leadership capabilities.
Strategic Blunders That Cost the Election
- Overconfidence in early polling: The party relied too heavily on initial survey numbers, failing to recognize shifting voter sentiments as the campaign progressed
- Failure to address key issues: Critical concerns like public safety, housing affordability, and urban mobility weren't adequately addressed in their platform
- Poor campaign messaging: Rabouin's team struggled to communicate a compelling vision that resonated with Montreal's diverse electorate
- Underestimating opponents: The campaign dismissed emerging challengers until it was too late to counter their momentum
Where the Campaign Went Wrong
The erosion of support wasn't sudden but rather a gradual decline that the party's internal polling either missed or ignored. Traditional strongholds began showing cracks as suburban and borough-specific concerns weren't properly addressed. The very coalition that had propelled Projet Montreal to previous victories began fracturing under Rabouin's leadership.
Critical missteps in campaign strategy became apparent as election day approached. The team failed to adapt to changing voter concerns, sticking with a message that had worked in previous elections but no longer resonated with a population grappling with post-pandemic challenges.
The Legacy of Valerie Plante: Help or Hindrance?
While Plante's popularity initially provided a foundation for Rabouin's campaign, it ultimately became a double-edged sword. Voters compared Rabouin unfavorably to his predecessor, and his attempts to both embrace and distance himself from her legacy created confusion about what his leadership would actually represent.
The party's internal dynamics also played a role in their downfall. Long-time supporters and volunteers expressed frustration with the campaign's direction, leading to diminished enthusiasm and ground game effectiveness when it mattered most.
Lessons for Montreal's Political Future
This election defeat serves as a cautionary tale for political parties across Canada. It demonstrates that incumbency and early polling advantages guarantee nothing in modern municipal politics. Voters are increasingly willing to abandon established parties when they fail to address pressing concerns or present compelling leadership alternatives.
The Projet Montreal loss underscores several key truths about contemporary urban politics:
- Voter loyalty can no longer be taken for granted
- Leadership transitions require careful management and clear communication
- Campaigns must remain agile and responsive to shifting public sentiment
- Past success doesn't automatically translate to future victories
As Montreal moves forward under new leadership, the political autopsy of Projet Montreal's campaign will provide valuable lessons for parties across the political spectrum. The defeat marks a significant turning point in the city's governance and serves as a reminder that in politics, no outcome is certain until the final votes are counted.
