With Donald Trump's return to the presidency, Canadian policymakers and analysts are urgently deciphering his administration's likely demands. Experts consulted by CTV News outline a multifaceted agenda expected to focus on economic, security, and geopolitical interests, reshaping the crucial bilateral relationship.
Renegotiating Trade and Economic Levers
Trade is anticipated to be a primary pressure point. Experts predict the Trump administration will immediately seek to renegotiate aspects of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is due for a review. The goal would be to extract more favourable terms for American industries, particularly in sectors like automotive manufacturing, dairy, and softwood lumber.
Furthermore, analysts highlight Trump's previous criticism of Canada's defense spending within NATO. Expectations are high for intensified pressure on Ottawa to significantly increase its military budget, moving closer to the alliance's two percent of GDP target. This demand would be framed as a matter of burden-sharing and continental security.
The Greenland Gambit and Arctic Sovereignty
A more complex and surprising element involves the Arctic. As reported, Trump's tactics to gain control of Greenland have been described by a NATO expert as bullying. This ambition directly impacts Canadian Arctic sovereignty and NORAD modernization efforts. Canada may face pressure to align with or acquiesce to American strategic moves in the region, potentially testing its commitment to its own northern territories and partnerships with European allies like Denmark.
The situation is compounded by internal Canadian issues, such as the ongoing water crisis forcing evacuations in Kashechewan, which underscore the challenges of northern governance.
Security, Borders, and Bilateral Friction
Beyond economics and the Arctic, the border and security cooperation will be under scrutiny. Trump's immigration policies could lead to demands for tighter Canadian asylum and border controls to prevent the U.S. from becoming a destination of secondary movement. Cybersecurity concerns, recently raised following Canada's electric vehicle deal with China, may also become a point of U.S. leverage, urging Canada to align more closely with American tech and security decoupling from China.
The cumulative effect of these potential demands, experts warn, is a relationship that could become more transactional and contentious. Canada will need to navigate between defending its national interests and maintaining functional ties with its largest trading partner and closest ally, all while a politically volatile figure occupies the White House.
As these scenarios develop, the Canadian government's responses—whether on defense spending, trade concessions, or Arctic policy—will define the next chapter of this indispensable but increasingly complex partnership.
