U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks in Geneva Amid Military Buildup and War Fears
Iran and the United States are set to meet Thursday in Geneva for nuclear negotiations, viewed as a final diplomatic opportunity as America has deployed a fleet of aircraft and warships to the Middle East to pressure Tehran into an agreement. U.S. President Donald Trump seeks a deal to constrain Iran's nuclear program, capitalizing on the country's internal struggles with growing dissent following nationwide protests last month.
Iran has maintained its intention to continue uranium enrichment, even as its nuclear program remains in ruins after Trump ordered an attack in June on three of the Islamic Republic's nuclear sites, part of a bruising 12-day war last year. If an American attack occurs, Iran has declared all U.S. military bases in the Middle East as legitimate targets, endangering tens of thousands of American service members. Iran has also threatened to attack Israel, potentially sparking a regional war across the Middle East.
"There would be no victory for anybody — it would be a devastating war,"
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told India Today in an interview filmed Wednesday before his flight to Geneva. "Since the Americans' bases are scattered through different places in the region, then unfortunately perhaps the whole region would be engaged and be involved, so it is a very terrible scenario."
Geneva Talks Represent Third Meeting Since June War
Araghchi will again face Steve Witkoff, a billionaire real estate developer and friend of Trump who serves as a special Mideast envoy for the president. The two men held multiple rounds of talks last year that collapsed after Israel launched its war against Iran in June. These latest talks are being mediated by Oman, a sultanate on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula that has long served as an interlocutor between Iran and the West.
After arriving in Geneva on Wednesday night, Araghchi met with Oman's Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi. According to a report from the state-run Oman News Agency, the men "reviewed the views and proposals that the Iranian side will present to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, based on the guiding principles agreed upon in the previous round of negotiations." Al-Busaidi will convey Iran's offer to American officials on Thursday.
An Associated Press journalist observed al-Busaidi after his meeting with the director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog. The Omani diplomat flashed a thumbs up when asked about his optimism for the talks. Al-Busaidi returned Thursday to the Omani diplomatic residence on the shores of Lake Geneva, followed by convoys believed to be carrying American and Iranian diplomats.
Negotiation Focus and Nuclear Concerns
In this round of negotiations following the June war, Trump has pushed to halt Iran's uranium enrichment entirely, while also addressing Tehran's ballistic missile program and support for regional militant forces. Iran insists the talks must remain focused solely on nuclear issues.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Wednesday that Iran is "always trying to rebuild elements" of its nuclear program. He noted that Tehran is not currently enriching uranium, "but they're trying to get to the point where they ultimately can."
Iran claims it has not enriched uranium since June, but it has blocked IAEA inspectors from visiting the sites bombed by America. Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press show activity at two of those sites, suggesting Iran is assessing and potentially recovering material there.
The West and the IAEA assert that Iran had a nuclear weapons program until 2003. Before the June attack, Iran had been enriching uranium up to 60% purity—a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%. U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran has not restarted a weapons program but has "undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so." While insisting its program is peaceful, Iranian officials have threatened to pursue nuclear weapons in recent years.
"The principle's very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon," U.S. Vice President JD Vance told reporters at the White House on Wednesday. Vance stated that Trump is "sending those negotiators to try to address that problem" and "wants to address that problem diplomatically," but added, "the president has other options as well."
Threat of Military Action Sparks War Fears
If the talks fail, uncertainty looms over the timing of any potential attack. If the aim of military action is to pressure Iran into nuclear concessions, it is unclear whether limited strikes would be effective. If the goal is to remove Iran's leaders, it would likely commit the U.S. to a larger, longer military campaign, with no public planning for the potential chaos in Iran.
Uncertainty also surrounds the regional implications of military action. Tehran could retaliate against American-allied nations in the Persian Gulf or Israel. Oil prices have risen in recent days due to these concerns, with benchmark Brent crude now around $70 a barrel. Iran previously halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz during the last round of talks, a critical passage for a fifth of global oil trade.
Satellite photos from Tuesday and Wednesday by Planet Labs PBC, analyzed by the AP, appeared to show American vessels typically docked in Bahrain—home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet—all at sea. The 5th Fleet referred questions to U.S. Central Command, which declined to comment. Before Iran's attack on Qatar in June, the 5th Fleet similarly scattered its ships to protect against potential attacks.
