We don’t know all there is to know, agreed. But, of what we do know, it is clear that Iran has prevailed in its war with Donald Trump’s America.
A Deal That Failed Its Goals
When the conflict started at the end of February, Trump told the world that it was all necessary to remove the Ayatollahs and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from power, persuade Iranians to rise up, eliminate Iran’s nuclear weapons capacity, end Iran’s support for terror, and create stability in the Middle East. None of those things have happened. None.
Instead, Iran is getting billions in reparations – far more than under Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. Its homicidal regime is intact, dominated by the IRGC, a designated terrorist entity in Canada and the West. The Iranian regime is now even more hardline than before.
Regional Power Shift
Iran is gaining de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz and has been transformed into a regional superpower. Oil-rich Gulf states are quietly making overtures to post-war Iran, moving away from Washington’s orbit. Iran gets to keep its weapons-grade uranium, with its nuclear future deferred to vague negotiations. By contrast, Obama’s JCPOA eliminated 97% of Iran’s uranium stockpile and took nearly two years to conclude.
Iran also retains its proxy armies in Hamas and Hezbollah, with Hezbollah still bombarding Israel’s North. Worse, Trump has publicly cursed at Israel’s prime minister, demanding Israel refrain from responding to Hezbollah attacks. This deal is an unmitigated fiasco for Israel and the world.
Patience Pays Off for Iran
How did we get here? Iran plays the long game, as they did with Jimmy Carter. In 1979, the Iranian dictatorship fell, replaced by Ayatollah Khomeini’s regime. The IRGC seized 66 American hostages. Carter’s rescue attempts failed, his approval ratings plummeted, and the hostages were released only when Ronald Reagan took office. Iran measures history in decades, not days. They knew that prolonging the conflict would slide Trump’s ratings and raise prices. With midterms looming, Trump blinked.
Iran now stands in a far better position than before the war: regional dominance, export of terror, weapons-grade uranium enrichment, and IRGC consolidation.
A Betrayal of Israel
Trump will declare it a victory, but for Israel, this deal is a calamity. A revitalized Iran, still developing nukes, possessing ballistic missiles, funding Hezbollah – Israel is shocked by Trump’s betrayal. Former Israeli PM Ehud Barak said, “Israel is paying the price… Iran emerged stronger; Israel emerged weaker.” Yair Lapid called it “one of the most shocking failures.” Daniel Shapiro noted the deal gives power to Hezbollah and Iran. Even Netanyahu’s allies are stunned; Channel 14 now calls Trump “a loser.”
Donald Trump rolled the dice, expecting a quick win. He got a quagmire, a less-safe world, a stronger Iran, and a war he lost.
