Canada's Comfortable Distance in the Americas: A Strategic Analysis
On January 3, 2026, the United States executed a covert operation to detain Venezuela's long-standing dictator, Nicolás Maduro, on charges of narcotrafficking and corruption. This event strikingly mirrors a similar intervention in 1990, when U.S. forces captured Panama's Manuel Noriega under comparable allegations. This repetition is far from coincidental; it underscores how order continues to be enforced in the Americas and reveals how countries like Canada, whether acknowledged or not, reap benefits from this enforcement while facing minimal risks.
The U.S. Approach: Law Enforcement Over War
Washington framed Maduro's capture not as an act of war but as a law-enforcement action, supported by a $50-million reward. This sent a clear and unambiguous message: when multilateral institutions prove ineffective, the United States will act unilaterally. The new U.S. National Security Strategy places the Western Hemisphere at the core of American security thinking, defining migration, organized crime, and external influence in Latin America as direct threats to U.S. national security. The implication is straightforward: instability in the region justifies decisive action, even when it bypasses multilateral constraints.
Prime Minister Mark Carney's Perspective
Prime Minister Mark Carney has described this moment as a rupture in the international order—a departure from the rules-based system that Canada has long championed. He is correct in noting that something fundamental has shifted. However, focusing solely on this rupture risks overlooking a deeper, more persistent issue. The challenge for Canada is not merely that Washington is adopting a different approach; it is that Canada still lacks a comprehensive understanding of the security realities in Latin America.
Rising Insecurity in Latin America
Across much of the region, insecurity is on the rise. Organized crime has expanded rapidly, in some areas wielding more authority than elected governments. State institutions are eroding—not collapsing entirely but adapting to structural weaknesses. In these environments, insecurity is rarely eliminated; instead, it is managed, displaced, or exported. Venezuela serves as a stark illustration of this dynamic. The Maduro regime survived years of economic collapse and sanctions not by restoring institutions but by externalizing insecurity—exporting migration, tolerating transnational criminal rents, and shifting costs outward. Maduro's removal did not dismantle this logic; it exposed how resilient it remains.
The Regional System and Canada's Position
Regime elites have repositioned themselves, but the structures that generate insecurity remain intact. Viewed through this lens, rising insecurity is not merely a consequence of poor domestic policy; it reflects a regional system in which insecurity is shifted rather than resolved. Canada occupies a comfortable position within this system. The nation benefits from the enforcement of order without incurring the associated risks, maintaining a strategic distance that allows it to avoid the direct consequences of regional instability.
This analysis highlights the complex interplay between U.S. actions, regional security dynamics, and Canada's passive role. As the Americas grapple with ongoing challenges, Canada's comfortable distance raises important questions about its long-term engagement and responsibility in the hemisphere.
