In the three decades following 1995, a recent Fraser Institute study notes, Alberta benefitted from a net inflow of 539,000 residents. This should give pause to Albertans thinking of voting for separation. Alberta’s dynamic growth has in part depended on having a large pool of labour. Putting up border controls could become a significant barrier to labour moving to the province.
British Columbia was the second largest net recipient of movers (215,000 of them) over the past 30 years, followed by Nova Scotia (23,000) and Prince Edward Island (4,000). The biggest net losers were Quebec (256,000), Ontario (168,000), Manitoba (156,000) and Saskatchewan (124,000). Newfoundland and Labrador lost 58,000 residents on a net basis and New Brunswick 6,000.
Percentage Gains and Losses
Alberta’s gain was even more dramatic in percentage terms. It is 11 per cent bigger today because so many people have moved there. British Columbia is only four per cent larger, Nova Scotia and P.E.I. two per cent each. On the other side of the flows, emigrants to other parts of Canada were roughly 10 per cent of the current populations of Newfoundland and Labrador, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, two per cent of Quebec’s and just one per cent of Ontario’s.
Yearly Trends
Quebec and Manitoba lost population every year over the past 30, Alberta only during the recession year of 2009-10 and between 2015 and 2021, when commodity prices fell and the NDP hiked top provincial personal tax rates by five percentage points from 10 to 15 per cent. British Columbia gained population in most years but has lost it to other provinces over the past two, which is bad news for Premier David Eby’s government.
Demographic Shifts
Over the three decades, Alberta drew in 409,000 people aged 18 to 44. Only B.C. was also a net gainer of young people (105,000). All other provinces lost. A concern for the Atlantic provinces is that they gain more old people than they lose. Coupled with their loss of young people, that means their populations are aging faster, which is a problem when elderly and health benefits must be funded by taxing younger people.
Provincial Flows
Alberta drew population from all provinces over the past 30 years, but mostly from Ontario (195,000), Saskatchewan (96,000) and Manitoba (73,000). For its part, Ontario attracted 168,000 Quebecers but lost 309,000 people to B.C. and Alberta. Quebec’s loss to those two provinces was 82,000.
Drivers of Migration
These statistics document a well-known drift westward over the past three decades. Why did it happen? Economic opportunities are the main reason people move. As resource-rich provinces boom, more jobs become available, attracting younger people, who have fewer costs moving from one jurisdiction to another.
Housing prices also affect mobility. Toronto and Vancouver have been the most expensive Canadian markets, especially since 2010, and so are less likely to attract migrants unless earnings and quality of life are high enough to offset the cost. Calgary and Edmonton are less costly, which gives younger families more purchasing power over both necessities and luxuries. Atlantic housing tends to be dirt cheap but income per capita is also lower than in other parts of Canada.
