In 1904, as part of Canada's campaign to populate the prairies, then-premier of the Northwest Territories Sir Frederick Haultain proposed establishing a new western province called Buffalo, comprising all of modern day Alberta and Saskatchewan.
With its remarkably flat landscape and fertile soils, Buffalo had the potential to become an agricultural powerhouse, and Haultain envisioned 'one big province that would be able to do things no other province could.'
Liberal prime minister Wilfrid Laurier ultimately rejected Haultain's proposal, and in 1905, the Canadian government instead scratched a ruler-straight line down the centre of the region, dividing the would-be province into two. Among the reasons for Laurier's decision, according to historical accounts, was that he feared the province could become too powerful, perhaps falling under the leadership of the Conservative Haultain.
More than 120 years later, the Buffalo province that never was has become a key rallying cry for Alberta separatists, often referenced by those who are sympathetic to the Western independence movement. For many, Buffalo is a shining example of how Alberta has been systematically undermined by the Canadian federation that created it — established from the start as a kind of feeder system for Eastern coffers.
Today, Western separatist sentiments, both in Alberta and increasingly in Saskatchewan, are running at an all-time high, with observers saying they have surpassed their previous peak in the 1980s.
While most polls put support for separation at around 20 per cent of Alberta's population, others have pegged it higher: A Pollara Strategic Insights survey last month found 27 per cent of respondents in favour of an independent Alberta. Crucially, another 15 per cent said they would vote 'yes' to send a message to Ottawa. As the 2016 Brexit vote in the United Kingdom and the 1995 Quebec referendum result have shown, however, seemingly small minorities can quickly become majorities when galvanized under a charismatic leader or major historical event.
'Even 20 per cent is double what it was 20 years ago,' said Ted Morton, a former Alberta energy minister and early supporter of the federal Reform Party. 'If we continue to be just a piggy bank for the Liberal Party, support for leaving will continue to go up.'
Morton said much of the anger comes after decades of failed efforts to reorient the Canadian federation more toward Western interests, from the Reform Party's 'the West wants in' campaign to successive bids by Alberta premiers to thwart Ottawa's powers.
Western conservatives have sought to challenge the federal government on everything from energy policy to Senate reform — both in the courts and in the House of Commons — only to have those efforts widely rebuffed.
Their lack of discernible progress culminated with the 2015 election of Justin Trudeau, whose government was viewed by Westerners as, among other things, actively hostile toward the oil and gas sector. Between 2007 and 2022, Alberta taxpayers sent a net $244 billion to the federal government (total taxes paid minus money spent or transferred back to the province), according to the Fraser Institute. That was five times more than B.C. or Ontario, the only two other net contributors, paid over that same period.
