Conrad Black: The West Is Winning Again
The balance of power is shifting decisively in favor of Western democracies, according to prominent commentator Conrad Black. Despite intense focus on the fast-moving conflict in Iran, broader geopolitical trends reveal significant advantages accruing to Western nations.
Policy Shifts Yield Tangible Results
Since the reinstatement of the current U.S. administration less than fourteen months ago, multiple policy initiatives have produced measurable improvements. Fentanyl and other drug trafficking, much of which originated in China, has been dramatically reduced entering the United States. Venezuela has been eliminated as a key link in this chain, while U.S. armed forces now cooperate with a revitalized Mexican government effort to subdue violent gangs in northern Mexico.
This collaboration has effectively blunted the flow of slaves and narcotics into American territory. Additionally, the entry of undocumented immigrants—particularly violent criminals, hundreds of thousands of whom were admitted during the previous four years—has nearly ceased entirely.
Alliance Realignments and Defense Investments
The Russo-Chinese alliance has suffered significant setbacks as traditional partners including Syria, Venezuela, Iran, and imminently Cuba have abruptly ceased functioning as practicing allies of Moscow and Beijing. Meanwhile, Western European nations, which previously languished with inadequate defense budgets while pleading for American assistance in Ukraine, have been pressured into raising military spending to serious levels.
The United States has quieted isolationist voices by selling highly sophisticated weapons to NATO allies in Europe, who subsequently transfer these systems to Ukraine. This strategic approach maintains support for Ukrainian defense while strengthening alliance capabilities.
Energy Markets and Regional Shifts
Concurrent with Western Europe's defense buildup, India ceased purchasing Russian oil due to an agreement with the United States. Venezuela has stopped supplying China with petroleum, and American policymakers remain determined to end Iranian oil shipments to China. While Russia may partially fill this gap, China possesses significant leverage to extract much lower prices than Russia previously charged European and Indian customers.
In Latin America, China's extensive courtship has been rebuffed by voters in Chile, Ecuador, El Salvador, Bolivia, and imminently Colombia and Peru. Meanwhile, free enterprise moderate conservative governments, led by Argentina's flamboyant President Javier Milei, are displacing leftist administrations across the region.
Strategic Calculations in Ukraine Conflict
U.S. President Donald Trump stands among the few Western statesmen to recognize dual necessities in the Ukraine conflict: preventing Russian reabsorption of Ukraine while avoiding such profound humiliation of Russia that it becomes permanently entrenched in China's embrace. The greatest nightmare beyond outright Russian victory—which would expose NATO as ineffective—involves pushing Russia into vassalage status where China could relocate tens of millions of surplus citizens to Siberia while extracting resources through Kremlin royalties.
For acknowledging Russia's historical connections to Ukraine spanning over 350 years, President Trump has faced widespread criticism as a Kremlin sympathizer. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot escape fundamental realities: Russia's GDP remains smaller than Canada's, the Ukraine war has lasted longer than the 1941-1945 Russo-German struggle, Russia has suffered approximately one million casualties with over half a million deserters and draft evaders, and no appreciable territorial gains have occurred in two years.
This conflict represents not merely a disaster for Russia but signifies that stronger former Soviet republics have legitimately seceded from Russian control. Russia will not revive the empires of Peter the Great or Stalin, nor will it exercise the intermittent influence previous Russian leaders enjoyed in Central Europe. While Russia remains an important nationality that ultimately belongs in the West, it possesses no realistic chance to rival American power again.
