U.S. President Donald Trump keeps repeating that the Strait of Hormuz — through which one fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally flow — will reopen by Friday. However, on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit, where Iran will dominate Monday's dinner conversation, it is clear that his European allies do not share his optimism. They disagree that trade can resume by week's end, as Trump promised, and have practical questions about what exactly was agreed before they can commit to de-mining missions and patrols.
Diverging Views at the G7
According to one G7 official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal dynamics, there are serious difficulties in finding a common position among the group about how to deal with the situation in Iran. Few are expecting a joint communique, something that has proved elusive during the Trump era. Even Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who for the most part has artfully avoided provoking Trump, said her country's contribution is conditional on a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon, where Israel's military has carried out strikes in recent days. She is not alone in questioning Trump's accelerated timeline.
Internal U.S. Disagreements
It does not help that even within Trump's own administration, there are prominent figures who did not go as far in promising that navigation along the vital chokepoint can go back to normal at the snap of a finger. One senior U.S. official said traffic in the waterway would ramp up over time, and it could take as many as two weeks for shipping to significantly increase — and even longer for it to return to the levels seen before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February. There are mines in the strait that still need to be cleared and shippers have different risk tolerances about navigating Hormuz, the official said.
Memorandum of Understanding
The official said the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran will make it explicit that the strait will be open toll-free for 60 days, and the U.S. will expect that provision makes it into a final agreement. The fact is that free navigation, once a given, is now the subject of negotiations that have not even started. Oil industry leaders have told the White House and the broader Trump administration for months that it would be untenable for the U.S. to permit tolls being charged for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a person familiar with those discussions, who asked not to be named because they were private. The White House knows where the industry stands, the person added.
Interim Agreement Details
While the U.S. and Iran both said they reached an interim agreement to reopen the strait, without an official document out in the open, they have offered different descriptions of what it says. Officials are due to sign the accord in Switzerland on Friday. U.S. officials have offered differing timelines for when the full text will be released, with Trump saying by week's end at the earliest and another senior U.S. official saying within the next two days. Vice President JD Vance is likely to represent the administration at the signing.
