Trump's Final Term: Lame Duck or Heightened Threat to Canada?
As Canada continues to grapple with repeated tariff threats and aggressive ultimatums from the White House, attention in Ottawa and across the business community has shifted to a critical question surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump. With Trump having declared he will not seek re-election in 2028, observers are debating whether his remaining years in office will finally bring stability to bilateral relations or instead escalate tensions north of the border.
The Lame Duck Debate Intensifies
Some political scholars in Washington express concern that Trump might challenge the 22nd Amendment, which restricts presidents to two terms. Meanwhile, other analysts point to growing evidence that the president is already operating with characteristics of a lame duck leader. This perception has gained traction as Trump's final midterm elections approach, with many Republicans expected to increasingly prioritize their own political futures over allegiance to the president.
This strategic shift among Republican lawmakers could fundamentally reshape key policy areas including international trade agreements, border control measures, and defense cooperation frameworks between the two nations.
Recent Congressional Rebellion
The U.S. House of Representatives recently delivered a symbolic rebuke to President Trump by voting against his proposed tariffs targeting Canada. While this legislative action can be vetoed by the president, it represents a notable moment of congressional resistance. Trump responded with characteristic fury on his Truth Social platform, declaring that "Canada has taken advantage of the United States on Trade for many years" and describing Canada as "among the worst in the World to deal with, especially as it relates to our Northern Border."
Despite this congressional pushback, there are few indications that Trump's behavior is transitioning toward traditional lame duck territory. His administration continues to pursue aggressive policies through executive actions and unilateral decisions, bypassing the legislative horse-trading that typically characterizes presidential relationships with Congress.
Escalating Threats Against Canada
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has issued multiple threats with significant implications for Canada:
- Grounding all Canadian-made aircraft over an ongoing FAA certification dispute
- Imposing 100 percent tariffs on Canadian imports if Canada engages in trade with China
- Demanding 50 percent federal ownership of the Gordie Howe International Bridge
Regarding the critical trade corridor between Detroit and Windsor, Trump declared on Monday: "I will not allow this bridge to open until the United States is fully compensated for everything we have given them, and also, importantly, Canada treats the United States with the Fairness and Respect that we deserve." He further asserted that "with all that we have given them, we should own, perhaps, at least one half of this asset."
Canada's Strategic Dilemma
As Canada contends with both the economic and psychological impacts of Trump's tariff wars and annexation rhetoric, many Canadian business leaders, politicians, and citizens naturally hope that the president's waning tenure might eventually ease bilateral tensions. The constant demands for concessions and the aggressive posture have created an environment of sustained uncertainty.
The fundamental question remains: Will a potentially lame-duck Trump administration prove more manageable for Canada, or will the president's reduced political constraints make him even more unpredictable and dangerous to Canadian interests? With the clock slowly counting down on his presidency, Canada must navigate this complex landscape while preparing for multiple possible outcomes in the crucial relationship between the two neighboring nations.
