CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten delivered a stark assessment on Monday, highlighting the precarious state of President Donald Trump's net approval rating as he prepares for his State of the Union address this week. In a vivid analogy, Enten compared Trump's dwindling polling numbers to a severe snowstorm battering the Northeast, noting, "My goodness gracious, the snow is up to the knees here in New York City. And Trump seems to be well underneath it at this point."
Record Low Approval Figures
Drawing from a CNN/SSRS poll released Monday, Enten emphasized that Trump's net approval rating—calculated as the percentage who approve minus those who disapprove—stands at a dismal -27 points heading into his congressional address. This marks a significant decline from his previous State of the Union ratings, which were -15 in 2018, -15 in 2019, and -10 in 2020. Enten stressed, "Donald Trump has never been weaker going into a State of the Union address, according to our CNN polling, than he is right now, and weaker by a considerable amount."
Historical Context and Predecessor Comparisons
Beyond breaking his own records from his first term, Trump's current net approval rating is "considerably lower" than those of his recent predecessors. According to CNN data, George W. Bush and Barack Obama held net approval ratings of -11 and -15, respectively, at similar points in their second terms, underscoring the depth of Trump's current political challenges.
Independents Drive the Decline
When asked about the factors behind Trump's plummeting numbers, Enten pointed to a dramatic shift among independent voters. Between February 2025 and this month, Trump's net approval rating with independents plummeted from -13 to -47, representing his lowest figure across both terms. Enten explained, "When you're 47 points underwater with independents, that's the name of the game, you can't be above water overall. And that's why Donald Trump is near record lows overall and the lowest he's ever been going into a State of the Union address."
This analysis underscores the critical role of independent voters in shaping overall approval metrics and suggests a challenging political landscape for the president as he addresses the nation.
