Premier Danielle Smith, as leader of the United Conservative Party, is navigating a precarious balancing act. This explains, though does not excuse, her muted response to the illegal release of personal information belonging to over 2.9 million Albertans by an unauthorized group.
Internal Party Divisions
Smith leads a party, and possibly a caucus, roughly split between federalists and separatists. Even if the ratio is two-thirds federalist to one-third separatist-friendly, she must satisfy these potentially irreconcilable factions to avoid a splintering of her caucus and party.
The separatist faction includes many of the same malcontents who ousted Jason Kenney in 2022 and later worked to elect Smith. If they perceive her as insufficiently committed to their cause, they may either turn against her or form a new party, fracturing the right-of-centre vote as the Wildrose did when it split from the Progressive Conservatives, allowing the NDP to form government in 2015.
The Privacy Breach
The release of the electors list, containing names and addresses of every registered voter in Alberta, may be the largest privacy breach in the province's history. It is certainly the most significant breach of Elections Alberta's confidential voter database. One would expect Smith to express greater outrage and determination to find and punish the offenders.
Smith's Dual Challenge
Smith knows that splitting the right-of-centre vote could be the only path for Naheed Nenshi to become premier, which she wants to prevent. However, she is also aware of strong separatist leanings within her caucus and party. Several caucus staffers virtually attended a video conference call organized by the separatist Centurion Project in mid-April.
My suspicion is that Smith, like many Albertans, is frustrated with Ottawa's overreliance on Alberta's wealth and the contempt shown by Laurentian elites. She may have entertained thoughts of independence. Yet, since becoming premier, she has advocated for a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.
