It would be quite a lurch for Danielle Smith to go from celebrating a major win-win for Alberta and Canada to then unleashing a referendum on breaking up the country. The premier previously said she did not intend to be the one to put separation on the ballot, since, as she put it, “My position is we should remain in Canada. That’s the position of our government.” And, in fairness, her pursuit of an energy agreement with Ottawa has helped to bolster that position.
Court Ruling Complicates Separatist Push
Smith hasn’t necessarily changed her mind here, but she seems less unequivocal in the face of last week’s court ruling, which halts the separatist petition effort. If the petition can’t be the spark for a referendum, it’s clear the separatists see the premier as their backup plan. And, so far, she’s not closing the door on that option.
That’s the wrong response. Whatever pressure Smith is facing to ensure a referendum proceeds, and whatever one thinks of this court ruling, she should not be the one to call such a vote. It undermines what she’s trying to accomplish, and she arguably lacks a mandate.
Legal and Political Hurdles
Until a higher court has a chance to weigh in on these issues, a government referendum without prior consultation may run into some of the same legal roadblocks, anyway. It’s quite reasonable to appeal the decision, though, as there are legitimate questions to be resolved about when the duty to consult kicks in, and whether that should apply to a proposed referendum. Let’s allow that to play out. If Smith hadn’t already pegged Oct. 19 as referendum day, there would be less urgency to all of this.
An appeal of this decision could take many months. That’s also true of the various investigations into the data breach involving Alberta’s official voters list, which the Alberta government says it’s eagerly awaiting.
No Mandate for Separation Vote
Holding off on a separation vote doesn’t mean that such a vote can’t and won’t happen. But if Smith believes that it falls to her to put the separatist question on the ballot, then it would make sense for a general election to come before that. There is a large number — perhaps even a majority — of Albertans who would just as soon not bother with a messy independence referendum. This court ruling provides that off-ramp. That’s the position the NDP has staked out.
For the premier and her government, it’s one thing to (repeatedly) tweak an existing citizen initiative law, but there’s arguably no mandate here for actually calling a separation vote. The UCP definitely did not campaign on this last time out. They should be willing to do so now.
