Alberta's separatist movement is not truly a fight for Canada's future; it is a battle for the United Conservative Party (UCP). Recent polling by Janet Brown, commissioned by CBC, indicates that support for separation is stagnant at 27%, while 67% of Albertans would vote against leaving Canada. The only income group with plurality support for separation, at 47%, is those earning over $150,000 who struggle to pay bills. Overall, general support for independence remains below 30%, consistent with historical levels.
However, among UCP voters, support for separation is significantly higher. Fifty-seven percent favor leaving Canada, with only 34% opposed. Jeffrey Rath, counsel for the Alberta Prosperity Society and Stay Free Alberta, noted that at the UCP annual general meeting, over 85% of attendees gave a standing ovation for Alberta independence. This highlights the internal conflict within the governing party. The referendum on October 19 may not shake Canada, but it could influence Alberta politics and policy leading into the 2027 general election.
Rath commented on Premier Danielle Smith: “She knows that the vast majority of her membership support Alberta independence. She’s effectively a federalist leading a party where a supermajority of her members do not support federalism.” Despite this, separatists generally admire Smith. Rath described her as one of the best retail politicians Alberta has seen, suggesting that if she declared for independence, supporters would be thrilled. However, he acknowledged that Smith also holds separatists hostage, as electing NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi would end independence efforts. Separatists are grateful Smith amended the Citizens Initiative Act to allow their petition to proceed.
If separatists win the referendum, many expect Smith to become a declared separatist leader. However, repeated polls indicate that outcome is unlikely.
