OTTAWA — A new opinion poll suggests the Liberal government's lead over the Conservatives has narrowed to single digits, but the second-place Tories may be receiving an unexpected boost from the New Democrats.
Poll Details
The Liaison Strategies poll found that the Liberals remain atop federal politics with 41 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, while the Conservatives sit at 32 per cent. While these numbers are not far off recent Liaison polls, the significant change is the surge by the New Democratic Party, now polling at over 12 per cent — more than double the 6.3 per cent the party won in the last federal election just over a year ago.
The NDP's comeback, bringing it close to its traditional support level of 15 to 20 per cent, is seen as a key factor in the Conservatives closing the gap with the Liberals. The NDP has jumped about five percentage points in less than two months, according to the poll.
Conservative Path to Victory
Analysts say the Conservatives need the NDP to perform markedly better than in the last election because the Tories require the progressive vote to split more evenly. In the April 2025 election, the Liberals won 43.8 per cent of the popular vote — just 2.5 points more than the Conservatives — as the NDP vote collapsed and largely migrated to the Liberals.
David Valentin, principal of Liaison Strategies, said the NDP rise could be good news for the Conservatives. However, he and others cautioned that the numbers are complicated because an NDP rise, while helpful to the Tories, could also threaten some Conservative-held seats in Ontario and British Columbia where the NDP is the primary challenger.
Sanjay Jeram, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University, agreed that the NDP surge could benefit the Conservatives, but noted that winning votes from the Liberals remains the more challenging part of the Tory path to victory. “This is the traditional path for the Conservatives,” he said.
Reasons for NDP Rise
Analysts find it difficult to explain the NDP rise. Jeram attributed it to many of the party’s supporters “drifting back” to their usual home. The big question, he said, is whether those voters will actually cast a ballot for the NDP or if they just say they intend to when an election isn’t expected for a couple of years.
The NDP may also benefit from having less competition for progressive voters. The Carney Liberals are widely seen as centre or centre-right, particularly compared to the party under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, due to the current government’s positions on pipelines, carbon taxes, and defence spending.
